中国东中西部地区经济增长的相互关系分析
<P align=center><B>中国东中西部地区经济增长的相互关系分析</B><a href="http://www.madio.net/bbs/post.asp?action=new&boardid=87#_ftn1" target="_blank" ><B><B ></B></B></A><B><p></p></B></P>
<P >刘乃全<FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT>张学良<p></p></P>
<P align=center>（上海财经大学区域经济研究中心，上海财经大学财经研究所）<p></p></P>
<P ><B>摘</B><B><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></B><B>要：</B>本文运用协整分析方法，对我国东部、中部、西部三个地区经济增长之间的相互关系进行了探讨，协整分析和葛兰杰因果关系检验的结果是西部经济增长与中部、东部经济增长均有协整关系，但中部与东部经济增长之间没有协整关系；西部经济增长促进了东部经济增长，东部反过来也促进了西部经济的增长，但对中部经济增长作用不大；中部不是东部和西部经济增长的葛兰杰原因。本文最后给出了一些政策建议。<B><p></p></B></P>
<P ><B>关<FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></B><B>键<FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></B><B>词：</B>经济增长；单位根检验；协整；葛兰杰因果关系</P>
<P><FONT size=3><FONT face="宋体, MS Song">Mutual influence Analysis of Economic Growth in Eastern, Central and Western Areas<p></p></FONT></FONT></P>
<P align=center><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIU Nai-quan </FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">ZHANG Xue-liang<p></p></FONT></P>
<P ><FONT face="Times New Roman">(Research Center for Regional Economy, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">Shanghai 200433,China)</FONT></P>
<P ><FONT face="Times New Roman">(Institute of Finance and Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics</FONT>，<FONT face="Times New Roman">Shanghai 200433,China)</FONT></P>
<P ><B><FONT face="Times New Roman">Abstract</FONT></B><B>：</B><FONT face="Times New Roman">This paper, by means of cointegration method, analyzes the relationship of economic growth among the eastern, central and western areas of China. According to the result of cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, there exists a cointegration relationship between the economic growth of the western and central areas, and also between the western and eastern areas, but not between the central and eastern areas. Economic growth in the western area promotes the growth in the eastern; and economic growth in the east area also favors the western area, but does little good to the central area; economic growth in the central area is not the Granger cause to the growth of the east, nor is it to the west. This paper gives some policy advices accordingly in its conclusion part.<BR><B>Key words</B></FONT><B>：</B><FONT face="Times New Roman">economic growth</FONT>；<FONT face="Times New Roman">unit test</FONT>；<FONT face="Times New Roman">cointegration</FONT>；<FONT face="Times New Roman">Granger causality</FONT></P>
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<P ><a href="http://www.madio.net/bbs/post.asp?action=new&boardid=87#_ftnref1" target="_blank" ></A><FONT size=2><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT>基金项目：本文系国家自然科学基金<FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT>项目批准号：70203006)的阶段性成果。<p></p></FONT></P>
<P ><FONT size=2><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT>作者简介：刘乃全<FONT face="Times New Roman">(1969-)</FONT>，男，山东蒙阴人，上海财经大学区域经济研究中心副研究员，经济学博士。<FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></FONT></P>
<P ><FONT size=2><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT>张学良<FONT face="Times New Roman">(1978-)</FONT>，男，安徽望江人，上海财经大学财经研究所，博士研究生。</FONT></P></DIV></DIV> <STRONG>中国东中西部地区经济增长的相互关系分析</STRONG> <P 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT>、依据累积概率曲线进行项目风险分析。<p></p></P>
<P 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center>由于计算机的运算速度非常快，蒙特卡罗模拟也可以同时进行敏感性分析。<p></p></P>
<P 0cm 0cm 0pt">目前，发达国家已经把蒙特卡罗模拟方法列入项目管理的常规方法。有关计算机应用软件也已经有许多种产品。<FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT>必须指出的是，目前的</P>
<P 0cm 0cm 0pt"><p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></p></P> <P 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT>、对随机抽样的数据进行必要的数学计算，求出结果；<p></p></P>
<P 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT>、对求出的结果进行统计学处理，求出最小值、最大值以及数学期望值和单位标准偏差；<p></p></P>
<P 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT>、根据求出的统计学处理数据，让计算机自动生成概率分布曲线和累积概率曲线<FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT>通常是基于正态分布的概率累积<FONT face="Times New Roman">S</FONT>曲线<FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT>；<p></p></P> 优秀 dddddddddddddddddd 1# keynslee 还有张学良！杨虎城呢？
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