| 不知怎么。。。今年又多了一道题。。。 不过考察内容根本没有变，就算每年就出一题，没得选，对我们来说，也都是一样的，数模人，何惧背景变化呢？我们有坚挺的数模脑，战胜一切。 不过还是想说，对本题的解读，函数建模法的功力发挥得淋漓尽致。希望大家不要错过~如觉有用，但觉尚不能领悟全部，欢迎大家关注我在数学中国上的课程哦~ Problem D Is it sustainable? Problem background(bks) One of the largest challenges of our time is how to manage increasing population andconsumption with the earth’s finiteresources. (pr1)How can we do this while at the same time increasing equity and eradicating poverty? (pr1')Since the beginning of the modern environmental movement in the 1960’s, balancing human needswith the earth’s health has been atopic of considerable debate. (bk1)Are economic development and ecosystem health at odds? In order toreconcile this difficult balance, theconcept of sustainable development was introduced in the 1980’s.(bk1') Sustainable development is defined by the 1987 Brundtland Report as “development that meets the needs of the presentwithout compromising the ability offuture generations to meet their ownneeds.” Since its conception, sustainable development has become a goal forinternational aid agencies, planners,governments, and non-profit organizations. (bk2)Despite this, striving towards asustainable future has never been more imperative.(bk2') The United Nations (UN) predicts the world’spopulation will level at 9 billion people by 2050. This, coupled with increased consumption, places a significant strainon the earth’s finite resources. (bk2'')Understanding that the earth is a system thatconnects bothtime and space is critical tosustainable development.(bk2''') Development must focus on needs (e.g., reducing the vulnerability of the world’spoor) and limitations(imp1) (e.g., the environment’s ability to detoxifywastes). In 2012, the UN conference onsustainable development recognized that: “that poverty eradication, changing unsustainableand promoting sustainable patterns of consumption and production and protectingand managing the natural resource baseof economic and social development are theoverarching objectives of and essentialrequirements for sustainable development.” Decreasingpersonalpoverty and vulnerability, encouraging economicdevelopment, and maintaining ecosystem health are the pillars of sustainable development. Problem statement The International Conglomerate of Money (ICM) has hired you to helpthem use their extensive financial resources and influence to create a moresustainable world. They are particularly interested in developing countries, wherethey believe they can see the greatest results of their investments. Task 1: Developa model for the sustainability of a country. (spm1)This model should provide a measure to distinguish more sustainable countries andpolicies from less sustainable ones.(spm1') It can alsoserve to inform the ICM on those countries that need the most support and intervention.(spm1'') Some factors may include human health, foodsecurity, access to clean water, local environmental quality, energy access,livelihoods, community vulnerability, and equitable sustainable development. (imp1)Your modelshould clearly define when and how a county is sustainable or unsustainable. Task 2: Select a country from the United Nations list of the 48 Least Developed Countries (LDC) list (http://unctad.org/en/pages/aldc/Least%20Developed%20Countries/UN-list-of- Least-Developed-Countries.aspx). Using your model and research from Task 1, create a 20 year sustainabledevelopment plan for your selectedLDC country to move towards a more sustainable future.(spm2) This plan should consist of programs, policies,and aid that can be provided by the ICMwithin a country based on their demographic, natural resources, economic, social and political conditions.(imp2) Task 3: Evaluatethe effect your 20-year sustainabilityplan has on your country’s sustainability measure created in Task 1.(spm1''') Predict(spm2) the change thatwill occur over the 20 years in the future byimplementing your plan in your evaluation. Based on the selected country, you may need toconsider additional environmental factors(imp3) such as climate change, development aid, foreign investment, naturaldisasters, and government instability. The ICM would like to get the “most bangfor their buck”, so determine which programs or policies produce the greatesteffect on the sustainability measure for your country.(spm2') Identifying highly effective strategies to be implemented is the ultimate goal of the ICM to create a moresustainable world. Task 4: Write a 20-page report (summary sheet does not count in the 20 pages) that explains your model, yoursustainability measure, your sustainability developmentplan, and the effect of your plan based on your model and the country’senvironment(spm123). Be sure to detail the strengths and weaknesses ofthe model. The ICM will use your report to invest in sustainabilitydevelopment intervention strategies for specific LDC countries. Good luck in yourmodeling work! 三类信息标注如上，前面的背景带过即可，4个 task 即为需要建立的3个模型和1个任务。 task1： 评价模型，评价对象是国家持续发展能力，指标在题干中有提示，human health， food security 等等，选取指标时一定要包括人类满意（I1）和环境满意（I2）两类，加权求和，或者再加上两类指标距离（|I1 - I2|）作为评价可持续性的标准，以此度量国家的 sustainability。 总之评价函数p = f1（I1，I2）一定要体现人类与环境“两者各自高，二者差别小”的核心想法； task2： 方案形式选定（为下面优化模型的决策变量做准备），题干提示了基本内容： S1,2..3 = （pro, poli, aid） = f2(1,2,...3)（demo, nat, eco,soci, poli） 应体现“依据条件选方案”的设计原则，此步只要求定性方案形式，无需定量, 且提出多个备选； tastk3： 第三个函数模型：（I1’，I2’） = f3（I1， I2，environ），并沿用之前的评价模型：p’ = f1（I1’，I2’），f3为task2中，函数值S对I1，I2产生的作用，包括环境参数（此函数和值同名记为f3 = f3（S））。同时，此问题还要求若干方案S1，2,...，3中，达到p’最大值的那个f2，这是task2决策方案问题的最优解部分，不可或缺； task4： 重新提示了本题重点：评价函数f1，方案f2提出，以及最后的方案效果函数f3S作用后指标I1，2的变化，进而得到最优的方案： f2 = arg（f2） max （f1（f3（f2（demo...）） （I1，I2，environ））），这是本问题的模型核心函数。 记得评价每一个函数的设定过程优缺点以及求优化过程的特点，还包括和标准结果比较，本模型就大功告成了！祝大家好运！ |
海疆 发表于 2015-4-25 20:09
纯英文的，毕竟蛋疼
海疆 发表于 2015-4-25 20:09
纯英文的，毕竟蛋疼
海疆 发表于 2015-4-25 20:09
纯英文的，毕竟蛋疼
娜写年华 发表于 2015-4-25 23:30
怎么原题是英文吗？
娜写年华 发表于 2015-4-25 23:30
怎么原题是英文吗？
陈勉诺 发表于 2015-4-26 15:06
啦啦啦~~~我是默认签名(*^__^*)
尜丹 发表于 2015-4-26 15:36
啦啦啦~~~我是默认签名(*^__^*)
尜丹 发表于 2015-4-26 15:36
啦啦啦~~~我是默认签名(*^__^*)
尜丹 发表于 2015-4-26 15:37
啦啦啦~~~我是默认签名(*^__^*)
尜丹 发表于 2015-4-26 15:37
啦啦啦~~~我是默认签名(*^__^*)
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