2016 ICM notes by magic2728

2016-2-12 21:04| 发布者: magic2728| 查看: 903| 评论: 21|原作者: magic2728

摘要: Analysis of 2016 ICM Problems2016 ICM Problem D Measuring the Evolution and Influencein Society’s Information Networks（spm1）Information isspread quickly in today’s tech-connected communications ne ...

Analysis of 2016 ICM Problems2016 ICM Problem D Measuring the Evolution and Influencein Society’s Information Networks（spm1）

Information isspread quickly in today’s tech-connected communications network;（bk1） sometimes it is due to the inherent value of the information itself, andother times it is due to the information finding its way to influential or central network nodes thataccelerate its spread through social media.（bk2） While content has varied -- in the 1800s, news was more about localevents (e.g., weddings, storms, deaths) rather than viral videos of cats or social lives of entertainers --the prevailing premise is that this cultural characteristic to share information (both serious and trivial) hasalways been there.(bk3) However, the flow ofinformation has never been as easyor wide-ranging as it is today, allowing news of various levels of importanceto spread quickly across theglobe in our tech connected world.(bk4) By taking a historicalperspective of flow of information relativeto inherent value of information, the Institute of Communication Media (ICM)seeks to understand theevolution of the methodology, purpose, and functionality of society’snetworks.(imp1)

Specifically, yourteam, as part of ICM’s Information Analytics Division, has been assigned toanalyze the relationshipbetween speed/flow of information vs inherent value of information basedon consideration of 5periods: in the 1870s, when newspapers were delivered by trains and storieswere passed by telegraph;in the 1920s, when radios became a more common household item; in the 1970s, when televisions were in most homes; in the1990s, when households began connecting to the early internet; in the 2010s, when we can carry aconnection to the world on our phones.（spm1，rsc2，imp2） Your supervisor reminds you to be sure to report the assumptionsyou make and the data you use to build your models.

Your specific tasksare:

(a) Develop one ormore model(s) that allow(s) you to explore the flow of information and filter or find what qualifies as news.（spm1'）

(b) Validate yourmodel’s reliability by using data from the past and the prediction capabilityof your model topredict the information communication situation for today and compare that with today’s reality.(spm1'')

(d) Use the theoriesand concepts of information influence on networks to model how public interest and opinion can be changed throughinformation networks in today’s connected world.(spm3)

(e) Determine howinformation value, people’s initial opinion and bias, form of the message or its source, and the topology or strength of the informationnetwork in a region, country, or worldwide could beused to spread information and influence public opinion.（spm4）

Possible Data Sources:（imp3）

As you develop yourmodel and prepare to test it, you will need to assemble a collection of data.Below are just someexamples of the types of data you may find useful in this project. Depending onyour exact model, some types ofdata may be very important and others may be entirely irrelevant. In additionto the sample sourcesprovided below, you might want to consider a few important world eventsthroughout history – if somerecent big news events, such as the rumors of country-turned-pop singer TaylorSwift’s possible engagementhad instead happened in 1860, what percentage of the population would knowabout it and how quickly;likewise, if an important person was assassinated today, how would that newsspread? How might thatcompare to the news of US President Abraham Lincoln’s assassination?

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 pageSummary Sheet and your solution cannot exceed 320 pages for a maximum of 21 pages. Note: Theappendix and references do not count toward the 20 page limit.（rcs3）

Analysis：

标题直接概括地提到了需要建立的模型：评价信息网络各个时间的变化情况和对社会的影响，在后面的叙述中逐渐展开这一说法。第一段提到信息的广泛传播以及两种原因，不变的文化特征以及变得更方便的通讯手段，最后一句暗示了对信息网络评价的三个因素：methodology， purpose， functionality。

第二段需要建立信息流速和信息内在价值的关系，这是信息网络对社会影响的第一步，而信息网络在不同时间影响的仅仅是这个函数关系的参数（需按照题目要求对5个时期网络评价指标给出量化结果），然后通过流速进一步会影响社会是后面函数关系的内容。

a即前面提到的信息流速和价值关系模型，包括对信息价值的评价模型；b为模型结果的验证，c为对社交网络规模的预测模型（relationship即methodology，capacity由流速决定），d公共兴趣变化过程的描述，即不同时代的网络参数值影响了流速最大的信息，e基于题目给的内容作为决策变量，优化信息的传播和影响。

本题函数关机较为复杂：val = f1(…),信息价值评价模型，vf = f2（val，bias，form，strength，meth，pur，func）价值影响流速模型，后面三个是依时代而定的参数，2~4为影响流速的其他因素，（meth，pur，func） = f3（t，…），网络参数的预测模型，vf和meth可由此预测，其余皆为参数，inf = f4（vf，val）影响和信息价值之间的关系；这4个函数定义清楚后，以上问题都迎刃而解。

注意最后的对数据使用的提示以及mission的完成。

2016 ICM Problem E Are we heading towards a thirstyplanet?（pr1）

Will the world runout of clean water? According to the United Nations, 1.6 billion people (one quarter of the world's population) experiencewater scarcity. Water use has been growing at twice the rate of population over the last century.Humans require water resources for industrial, agricultural, and residential purposes. There aretwo primary causes for water scarcity: physical scarcity and economic scarcity. Physical scarcityis where there is inadequate water in a region to meet demand. Economic scarcity is where waterexists but poor management and lack of infrastructure limits the availability of cleanwater. Many scientists see this water scarcity problem becoming exacerbated with climate changeand population increase. The fact that water use is increasing at twice the rate of populationsuggests that there is another cause of scarcity – is it increasing rates of personal consumption, orincreasing rates of industrial consumption, or increasing pollution which depletes the supply offresh water, or what? ** (bk1)

Is it possible toprovide clean fresh water to all? The supply of water must take into accountthe physicalavailability of water (e.g., natural water source, technological advances suchas desalination plantsor rainwater harvesting techniques). Understanding water availability is an inherently interdisciplinary problem. One mustnot only understand the environmental constraints on water supply, but also how social factorsinfluence availability and distribution of clean water. For example, lack of adequate sanitation cancause a decrease in water quality. Human population increase also places increased burden on thewater supply within a region. When analyzing issues of water scarcity, the following types ofquestions must be considered. How have humans historically exacerbated or alleviated waterscarcity? What are the geological, topographical, and ecological reasons for water scarcity, and howcan we accurately predict future water availability? What is the potential for new or alternatesources of water (for example, desalinization plants, water harvesting techniques or undiscoveredaquifers)? What are the demographic and health related problems tied to water scarcity?(bk2)

Problem Statement

The InternationalClean water Movement (ICM) wants your team to help them solve the world’s

water problems. Canyou help improve access to clean, fresh water?

Task 1: Develop amodel that provides a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population. You may needto consider the dynamic nature of the factors that affect both supply and demand in yourmodeling process.（spm1）

Task 2: Using the UNwater scarcity map (http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0222-

waterstress-overuse-EN.jpg)pick one country or region where water is either heavily or moderately overloaded. Explain why and how wateris scarce in that region. Make sure to explain both the social and environmental driversby addressing physical and/or economic scarcity.（spm1'）

Task 3: In yourchosen region from Task 2, use your model from Task 1 to show what the water situation will be in 15 years. How does thissituation impact the lives of citizens of this region? Be sure to incorporate the environmental drivers’effects on the model components.（spm1''）

Task 4: For yourchosen region, design an intervention plan taking all the drivers of water scarcity into account. Any intervention plan willinevitably impact the surrounding areas, as well as the entire water ecosystem. Discuss thisimpact and the overall strengths and weaknesses of the plan in this larger context. How does your planmitigate water scarcity?(spm2)

Task 5: Use theintervention you designed in Task 4 and your model to project wateravailability into the future. Canyour chosen region become less susceptible to water scarcity? Will water become a critical issue in the future? If so,when will this scarcity occur?(spm2')

Task 6: Write a20-page report (the one-page summary sheet does not count in the 20 pages) that explains your model, water scarcity in yourregion with no intervention, your intervention, and the effect of your intervention on your region’sand the surrounding area’s water availability. Be sure to detail the strengths and weaknesses ofyour model. The ICM will use your report to help with its mission to produce plans to provideaccess to clean water for all citizens of the world. (mss1)

Good luck in yourmodeling work!

Your ICM submissionshould consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet and your solution

cannot exceed 20pages for a maximum of 21 pages. Note: The appendix and

references do notcount toward the 20 page limit.（rsc1）

Analysis：

第一段背景说明水资源加速紧缺，第二段探讨能否解决此问题。

需要建立的几个函数关系：

task1：水资源获取能力评价模型，各个要素在问题和背景中都有提示，以及对各个评价指标的预测模型，task2用task1的评价模型解释结果，task3用task2的预测模型得到结果，加上环境扰动，task4，干预方案和环境条件的函数关系（可以以水资源能力作为决策目标转化为优化问题求解）以及方案作用下的水指标预测模型，task5用task4的模型得到预测效果评估，task6按照要求完成报告，大功告成！

本题一共四个函数关系，一个评价，两个预测，还有一个决策相关的目标函数，清晰定义他们是解决问题的关键！

2016 ICM Problem F Modeling Refugee Immigration Policies（bk1）

With hundreds ofthousands of refugees moving across Europe and more arriving each day, considerable attention has been given to refugee integration policiesand practices in many countries and regions.

History has shown usthat mass fleeing of populations occur as a result of major political andsocial unrest and warfare. These crises bring a set of uniquechallenges that must be managed carefully through effective policies. Events in the Middle Easthave caused a massive surge of refugees emigrating from the Middle East into safe haven countries in Europeand parts of Asia, often moving through the Mediterranean and into countries such as Turkey,Hungary, Germany, France, and UK. By the end of October 2015, European countries had receivedover 715,000 asylum applications from refugees.

Hungary topped thecharts with nearly 1,450 applications per 100,000 inhabitants, but with only asmall percentage of thoserequests granted (32% in 2014), leaving close to a thousand refugees homelessper every 100K residentsof the country. Europe has established a quota system where each country has agreed to take in a particular number ofrefugees, with the majority of the resettlement burden lying with France and Germany.

The refugees travelmultiple routes – from the Middle East through (1) West Mediterranean, (2)Central Mediterranean, (3)Eastern Mediterranean, (4) West Balkans, (5) Eastern Borders, and (6) Albaniato Greece (See theseroutes mapped out in http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911).Each route has different levelsof safety and accessibility, with the most popular route being EasternMediterranean and the mostdangerous, Central Mediterranean. Countries that have been burdened the mostare concerned abouttheir capacity to provide resources for the refugees such as food, water,shelter, and healthcare. Thereare numerous factors that determine how the refugees decide to move through the region. Transportation availability, safety ofroutes and access to basic needs at destination are considered by each individual or family in this enormousmigration.（bk2）

The UN has askedyour team, the ICM-RUN (RefUgee aNalytics)to help develop a better understanding of the factors involved with facilitating themovement of refugees from their countries of origin into safe haven countries.

Your Specific Tasks:

1. Metrics of refugee crises. Determinethe specific factors which can either enable or inhibit the safe and efficient movement of refugees. Thereare attributes of the individuals themselves, the routes they must take, the types oftransportation, the countries’ capacity, including number of entry points and resources available to refugeepopulation. This first task requires ICM-RUN to develop a set of measures and parameters andjustify why they should be included in the analysis of this crisis.（spm1）

2. Flow of refugees. Create a model of optimal refugee movementthat would incorporate projected flows of refugeesacross the six travel routes mentioned in the problem, with consideration of transportation routes/accessibility, safety ofroute and countries’ resource capacities. You can include different routes, different entry points,single or multiple entry points, and even different countries. Use the metrics that you establishedin Task 1 to determine the number of refugees, as well as the rate and point of entry necessary toaccommodate their movement. Be sure to justify any new elements you have added to the migrationand explain the sensitivities of your model to these dynamics.（spm2）

3. Dynamics of the crisis. Refugeeconditions can change rapidly. Refugees seek basic necessities for themselves and their families in the midst ofcontinuously changing political and cultural landscapes. In addition, the capacity to house,protect, and feed this moving population is dynamic in that the most desired destinationswill reach maximum capacity the quickest, creating a cascade effect altering the parameters for thepatterns of movement. Identify the environmental factors that change over time; and show howcapacity can be incorporated into the model to account for these dynamic elements. Whatresources can be prepositioned and how should they be allocated in light of these dynamics? Whatresources need priority and how do you incorporate resource availability and flow in your model?Consider the role and resources of both government and non-government agencies (NGOs). How does theinclusion of NGO’s change your model and strategy? Also consider the inclusion of otherrefugee destinations such as Canada, China, and the United States. Does your model work for theseregions as well?（spm3）

4. Policy to support refugee model. Nowthat you have a working model, ICM-RUN has been asked to attend a policy strategy meeting whereyour team is asked to write a report on your model and propose a set of policies that willsupport the optimal set of conditions ensuring the optimal migration pattern. Your UN commission hasasked you to consider and prioritize the health and safety of refugees and of the localpopulations. You can include as many parameters and considerations as you see fit to help toinform the strategic policy plan, keeping in mind the laws and cultural constraints of the effectedcountries. Consider also the role and actions of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).（spm4）

5. Exogenous events. In addition toendogenous systemic dynamics, exogenous events are also highly likely to occur and alter the situationparameters in these volatile environments, For example, a major terrorist attack in Paris,France has been linked to the Syrian refuge crisis, and has resulted in substantial shifts in theattitudes and policies of many European countries with respect to refugees. The event has also raisedconcerns among local populations. For example, Brussels, Belgium was placed in a lockdown afterthe Paris raids in attempts to capture possible terrorists.

a) What parametersof the model would likely shift or change completely in a major exogenous

event?

b) What would be thecascading effects on the movement of refugees in neighboring countries?

c) How will theimmigration policies that you recommend be designed to be resilient to these types of events?（spm5）

6. Scalability. Using your model, expandthe crisis to a larger scale – by a factor of 10. Are there features of your model that are not scalable tolarger populations? What parameters in your model change or become irrelevant when the scope of thecrisis increases dramatically? Do new parameters need tobe added? How does this increase the time required to resolve refugee