【转】Red Sun in the Morning: find an exit strategy.红太阳在早上：找到一个退...

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Red sun in the morning, sailors take warning.
Ten years ago hurricane Katrina had a devastating effect on the economies of several states,
causing many deaths and much suffering. Comprehensive evacuation plans have been developed
since then, but the authorities still want to improve their effectiveness. Your team has been hired
by the Mississippi Emergency Management Administration (MSEMA) to review their current
evacuation strategies.
Things to keep in mind: All hurricanes are assigned a category: from 1 (the weakest) to 5 (the
strongest, like Katrina). The category and the location of landfall are first predicted about 4 days
in advance. Predictions are revised using updated information 48 hours later, and the final (most
accurate) predictions become available 24 hours ahead of the expected landfall. The category of
the hurricane and the actual location of the landfall determine which counties will be flooded. In
addition, driving conditions in surrounding counties might be seriously affected by the size of the
hurricane.
Build a model to advise MSEMA on an optimal strategy: which counties should be ordered to
evacuate, when, and where to. The first page of your manuscript should be a one page nontechnical,
executive summary for the governor of Mississippi. It should describe your main
recommendations, the criteria you used to evaluate their effectiveness, and any caveats you
believe are important to mention.
Time permitting, your model should also account for the fact that evacuations initiated in
Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi affect each other. For example, a large portion of the New
Orleans population will likely evacuate through Jackson, MS using highways 59 and 55. If the
population of Jackson needs to evacuate, much of it will be directed North within MS or West
toward Monroe, LA. Parts of coastal counties in MS will evacuate through Mobile, AL.
Despite these interdependencies, the decisions in each state are rarely made collaboratively. So,
if you are a governor in one of these states and you order the evacuation later than the others, the
population of your state might be at disadvantage since the roads will be already clogged by
then. If the hurricane turns out to be stronger than expected, your constituents might end up stuck
in traffic in affected areas. On the other hand, if you order the evacuation too early, this
disruption carries a high economic cost – coastal areas generate much revenue for your state and
early predictions about the expected hurricane strength/landfall time/location might be


翻译
红太阳在早上：找到一个退出策略。夜晚的红太阳，水手们的喜悦。
早晨红太阳，水手们采取警告。
十年前，卡特丽娜飓风对几个州的经济有着毁灭性的影响，
造成许多死亡和痛苦。已经制定了全面的疏散计划
从那时起，但当局仍然希望提高其效力。你的团队已经被雇用
在密西西比州的急救管理局（msema）审查其电流
疏散策略。
事情要记住：所有的飓风都被分配一个类别：从1（最弱）到5
最强，像卡特丽娜）。类别和登陆位置第一预测约4天
提前。使用更新的信息48小时后，和最终（大多数
准确的预测可以提前）预计登陆24小时。的范畴
飓风和实际位置登陆确定县将被淹没。在
此外，在周边县市的驾驶条件可能受到严重影响的大小
飓风。
建立一个模型的最优策略msema建议：各国应责令
疏散，何时，以及在哪里。您的稿件的第一页应该是一一页的非技术性的，
密西西比州州长的执行摘要。它应该描述你的主要
建议你用来评估其有效性的标准，任何警告你
相信是重要的提。
如果时间允许的话，你的模型应该考虑的事实，开始撤离
路易斯安那，阿拉巴马州，密西西比州相互影响。例如，一大部分的新
奥尔良人口将疏散通过杰克逊，MS使用高速公路59和55。如果
人口的禅师需要撤离，大部分将在西或北的北西
向梦露，拉。沿海县的部分地区将通过移动，铝。
尽管这些相互依赖，每个州的决定很少合作。所以，
如果你是这些州中的一位州长，你要比其他人晚一点，那就是
你的国家人口可能处于不利地位，因为道路将被阻塞的
然后。如果飓风变成强于预期，你的选民可能最终会被卡住
在受影响地区的交通。另一方面，如果你命令疏散太早，这
中断带来的经济成本很高，沿海地区为你的国家创造了许多收入
关于预期飓风强度/登陆时间/地点可能是早期预测


文章摘自网络http://www.math.cornell.edu/~mcm/old_problems/cmcm_evacuation.pdf