2020美赛A题

48866078

2020 MCM Weekend 1

Problem A: Moving north

Global ocean temperatures affect the quality of habitats for certain ocean-dwelling species When temperature changes are too great for their continued thriving, these species move to seek other habitats better suited to their present and future living and reproductive success. One example of this is seen in the lobster population of maine usa that is slowly migrating north to Canada where the lower ocean temperatures provide a more suitable habitat. This geographic population shift can significantly disrupt the livelihood of companies who depend on the stability

of ocean-dwelling species

Your team has been hired as consultants by a Scottish North Atlantic fishery management

consortium. The consortium wants to gain a better understanding of issues related to the potential migration of Scottish herring and mackerel from their current habitats near Scotland if and when global ocean temperatures increase. These two fish species represent a significant economic

contribution to the Scottish fishing industry. Changes in population locations of herring and

mackerel could make it economically impractical for smaller Scotland-based fishing companies,

who use fishing vessels without on-board refrigeration, to harvest and deliver fresh fish to

markets in Scotland fishing ports

Requirements

1.        Build a mathematical model to identify the most likely locations for these two fish species over the next 50 years, assuming that water temperatures are going to change enough to cause the populations to move

2.        Based upon how rapidly the ocean water temperature change occurs, use your model to predict best case, worst case, and most likely elapsed time(s)until these populations will be too far away for small fishing companies to harvest if the small fishing companies continue to operate out of their current locations

3.        In light of your predictive analysis, should these small fishing companies make changes to

heir operations?


If yes, use your model to identify and assess practical and economically attractive strategies for small fishing companies. Your strategies should consider, but not be limited

to, realistic options that include

Relocating some or all of a fishing companys assets from a current location in a Scottish port to closer to where both fish populations are moving

Using some proportion of small fishing vessels capable of operating without land based support for a period of time while still ensuring the freshness and high quality

of the catch

Other options that your team may identify and model

b. If your team rejects the need for any changes justify reasons for your rejection based on your modeling results as they relate to the assumptions your team has made





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