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08年icm论文(神经网络算法)

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发表于 2009-1-30 10:00 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览
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Summary
5 p9 [3 ~& F, c/ b  |! i4 bSocial attention has been increasingly paid to health care systems varied in effectiveness and
5 O4 _2 k7 b" \5 w0 Q/ vefficiency. This ** addresses the assessment and prediction of health care system. First and
( {$ k' o3 U& q2 m' Y, Zforemost, a metrics list is established and refined for further assessment. Secondly, model tests are
6 z' g9 P: N; K4 z. @0 z% Nconducted between countries. Thirdly, a predictive model based on the relationship between$ ~  c2 b7 L) W
changes and performance is proposed for restructure of the United States health system.' K4 \* b' h9 j0 J  n( M
Under the guidance of WHO Health System Performance Framework, we gain an insight of the7 z. k1 {1 ?2 X
problem. Focusing on the outcomes, health, responsiveness and financial protection, we devise
! Q! n4 _4 a& Y3 J4 a4 nmetrics to build an index system for evaluat ion. Lists which describe each metric are presented
' i( C  d" E6 v7 W) h6 S" zafterwards. Using Comprehensive Evaluation Method (CEM), combinations of metrics are carried% R4 [+ f+ V2 A
out, yielding metric o for effectiveness and for efficiency , which are the ultimate goals of A o P" H: Q* E6 M4 B7 O1 L' v+ U
health care system. With these metrics, we can compare the relative quality of systems. After a
* V( B( D3 n, Z; othorough search of data sources, we refine the metrics list based on data availability, and also
1 T; N# e. \# a6 k$ Z0 Ipresent the estimating and obtaining approaches.0 `% c1 C; T4 \8 D( O/ w
For the purpose of international comparison, Principal Components Analysis is applied to choose" U9 F* }6 v- \
the most important and viable metrics. Life expectancy at birth, prevalence of tuberculosis,8 n; b; A) Q& O/ W$ g$ I
immunization coverage among 1-years-olds and fairness of financial contribution are finally
2 k# J0 M% u$ Q7 O, z0 ~, hselected. Then modified Analytical Hierarchy Process is processed to weigh each metric. The test( F6 t0 g( I2 W0 p9 ~1 H! ^1 D
results between the United States and two other countries are showed below:# S. Q. i5 Y( G' @: G/ X
Investigating the discrepancy between results, we attribute the cause to the differences in devise of3 O3 N2 i9 a1 T* }
metrics and weights in CEM.
/ O  M! o) ^* IThen we propose a novel framework for prediction of restructure. Stepwise Regression Analysis is* {9 ?" z+ J: L  G, m5 {; S) q
introduced to find the relationship between the major contributing input factors and outcomes.
9 D: Z6 H8 q4 m! kFurther more, after analyzing the variations of functions, possible policy changes to improve are
# u0 e2 @2 M3 _* |7 Qrecommended, including strengthening primary care system and conducting a single payer system.+ g2 [: j& C' z; ~2 r  b
Finally, the strength and weakness of our models are summarized, as well as two urgent aspects for
  B; Q% ~$ r( Q/ Z  lfuture work. The main achievements and contributions of this ** are concluded in the end.
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