2022小美赛赛题的移动云盘下载地址 5 K; C: ~! W% \" Yhttps://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CJAMhGgSJx0 S; x; w( i0 W q: J ]
$ a. ~$ r* b, O" b$ T9 ?
2022 0 E8 w) H: D5 vCertifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling" P% T* d$ a0 q# M8 ?( u
http://mcm.tzmcm.cn - M4 ~2 Q, D+ r# N0 S/ Z2 e9 s; OProblem A (MCM): { p8 ~3 B1 Y' K* E- G, Y
How Pterosaurs Fly 2 `8 X" c3 r2 N8 S8 f6 W- WPterosaurs is an extinct clade of flflying reptiles in the order, Pterosauria. They + S; f& M' [, y$ Q/ |; k: bexisted during most of the Mesozoic: from the Late Triassic to the end of O% o" K `5 m1 c
the Cretaceous. Pterosaurs are the earliest vertebrates known to have evolved9 Q. y3 I' _1 O5 o* j2 c4 O. R& f1 p
powered flflight. Their wings were formed by a membrane of skin, muscle, and / q2 }+ @# [! h6 fother tissues stretching from the ankles to a dramatically lengthened fourth , ~+ @( ` Q/ [, n0 Bfifinger[1]. 1 d. c. U0 |, C: |4 @5 AThere were two major types of pterosaurs. Basal pterosaurs were smaller. }+ p- J0 r4 B! w9 Z* r
animals with fully toothed jaws and long tails usually. Their wide wing mem " _6 U8 I& l+ Q1 D" ybranes probably included and connected the hind legs. On the ground, they; M- H' E5 G1 [- @
would have had an awkward sprawling posture, but their joint anatomy and * o1 w9 q5 B. [5 L7 nstrong claws would have made them effffective climbers, and they may have lived+ u4 E2 z; o! i6 J6 H5 l1 ]
in trees. Basal pterosaurs were insectivores or predators of small vertebrates.( x; R0 q( q8 o/ {6 M
Later pterosaurs (pterodactyloids) evolved many sizes, shapes, and lifestyles.' f& \% N& Z4 Z. N
Pterodactyloids had narrower wings with free hind limbs, highly reduced tails, " A9 p2 G* |& E n( ~; r; Qand long necks with large heads. On the ground, pterodactyloids walked well on" U9 G: I+ c0 S( @9 B
all four limbs with an upright posture, standing plantigrade on the hind feet and 2 r) A. w0 h" O$ k$ ?3 xfolding the wing fifinger upward to walk on the three-fifingered “hand”. The fossil9 `0 d0 H1 a5 `, S1 r4 L2 Q
trackways show at least some species were able to run and wade or swim[2].- R9 |4 U" D8 g1 W, C& T
Pterosaurs sported coats of hair-like fifilaments known as pycnofifibers, which5 |+ U% P+ A% M9 ?
covered their bodies and parts of their wings[3]. In life, pterosaurs would have ; V0 ?- Q, h( k& O& R% Q& Whad smooth or flfluffffy coats that did not resemble bird feathers. Earlier sug1 o. D/ z S0 g' i( o% u
gestions were that pterosaurs were largely cold-blooded gliding animals, de) q$ Z9 j: l! p) Q" |
riving warmth from the environment like modern lizards, rather than burning ; e/ p( J6 m4 r/ a- dcalories. However, later studies have shown that they may be warm-blooded " }/ a/ _% x V0 C# ~6 T(endothermic), active animals. The respiratory system had effiffifficient unidirec$ C4 y' I" [! e. k3 a* |
tional “flflow-through” breathing using air sacs, which hollowed out their bones : m1 d& j6 }* P' f4 l8 l5 N! kto an extreme extent. Pterosaurs spanned a wide range of adult sizes, from2 E6 a5 V- q s" Q
the very small anurognathids to the largest known flflying creatures, including 9 [. N# r2 g8 g( u1 GQuetzalcoatlus and Hatzegopteryx[4][5], which reached wingspans of at least) q2 r2 T' }" D$ n* }
nine metres. The combination of endothermy, a good oxygen supply and strong4 o' C, b1 a# L: b' _3 M
1muscles made pterosaurs powerful and capable flflyers. " r* U) v& [3 m3 y& LThe mechanics of pterosaur flflight are not completely understood or modeled ! h5 K4 ^& ] kat this time. Katsufumi Sato did calculations using modern birds and concluded # h% [( y5 L2 X; Othat it was impossible for a pterosaur to stay aloft[6]. In the book Posture, 1 d6 s8 \ A' U. R/ ELocomotion, and Paleoecology of Pterosaurs it is theorized that they were able 0 W, ^8 K1 F1 ato flfly due to the oxygen-rich, dense atmosphere of the Late Cretaceous period[7]. ) Y; r7 ~" C3 ]3 W/ DHowever, both Sato and the authors of Posture, Locomotion, and Paleoecology ( v7 B& T3 d6 {" dof Pterosaurs based their research on the now-outdated theories of pterosaurs3 d* g, }0 \7 o! E' D; J1 \5 A" S/ x
being seabird-like, and the size limit does not apply to terrestrial pterosaurs,- N2 z; C% t: V7 m. B- n( o
such as azhdarchids and tapejarids. Furthermore, Darren Naish concluded that 7 p1 `0 T# T! xatmospheric difffferences between the present and the Mesozoic were not needed & y0 K. C x: Ufor the giant size of pterosaurs[8].1 B/ v2 M- L+ Y: y: |
Another issue that has been diffiffifficult to understand is how they took offff. 0 T) X+ U, P6 _6 Q: a# ~If pterosaurs were cold-blooded animals, it was unclear how the larger ones8 b" n- h6 t, |$ S: i; |$ N
of enormous size, with an ineffiffifficient cold-blooded metabolism, could manage9 Y9 m0 @7 o$ ~* h4 Q
a bird-like takeoffff strategy, using only the hind limbs to generate thrust for . j. u' I0 _1 S6 O, tgetting airborne. Later research shows them instead as being warm-blooded9 g- x% _$ N9 ^ ]- o5 _- `
and having powerful flflight muscles, and using the flflight muscles for walking as* N1 u- ]2 O: Q
quadrupeds[9]. Mark Witton of the University of Portsmouth and Mike Habib of& @; W/ [* V; w( ]
Johns Hopkins University suggested that pterosaurs used a vaulting mechanism5 q+ V( U7 M g' Y% m0 w# u
to obtain flflight[10]. The tremendous power of their winged forelimbs would ' K' c; z ]; H/ ]$ Yenable them to take offff with ease[9]. Once aloft, pterosaurs could reach speeds , b& Q0 h4 @* `) _0 D' \of up to 120 km/h and travel thousands of kilometres[10]. 9 o3 T8 I/ ] l- B: TYour team are asked to develop a reasonable mathematical model of the 0 ?/ m3 A$ Q5 s+ q( k6 l6 c% {flflight process of at least one large pterosaur based on fossil measurements and ( a8 d- Z8 t5 r2 N. ^to answer the following questions. ) ?; j8 {( J! J# a# ?& ?& J9 Q1. For your selected pterosaur species, estimate its average speed during nor. i+ F) D/ `2 i, U8 x
mal flflight.* b& }- A" l4 u, J1 Z' g' }/ ?! c
2. For your selected pterosaur species, estimate its wing-flflap frequency during ! i* Z) F5 H, h$ O* Snormal flflight. 0 f' B, K/ A5 [3. Study how large pterosaurs take offff; is it possible for them to take offff like( C2 ^+ v( a0 K% e! y4 j2 _
birds on flflat ground or on water? Explain the reasons quantitatively.3 V+ H0 R3 U! _$ Y) e
References) N+ @6 ?+ H! F6 a' _! T, I
[1] Elgin RA, Hone DW, Frey E (2011). The Extent of the Pterosaur Flight9 x7 O8 C% r5 d0 T" o2 X4 k( j
Membrane. Acta Palaeontologica Polonica. 56 (1): 99-111.' o Q- G( Z+ S
2[2] Mark Witton. Terrestrial Locomotion. 2 G- e8 X, j0 @3 C4 h Whttps://pterosaur.net/terrestrial locomotion.php' h) z. f- f: z9 x) n P7 {
[3] Laura Geggel. It’s Offiffifficial: Those Flying Reptiles Called Pterosaurs * s1 v. X4 }# D# m w" lWere Covered in Fluffffy Feathers. https://www.livescience.com/64324-! G7 ^7 } m* v0 U! N
pterosaurs-had-feathers.html 7 s( v4 v) N6 |+ `7 c4 h[4] Wang, X.; Kellner, A.W.A.; Zhou, Z.; Campos, D.A. (2008). Discovery of a! `8 p- z, S! W i
rare arboreal forest-dwelling flflying reptile (Pterosauria, Pterodactyloidea) G2 \% z5 p" ^7 H F( dfrom China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105 (6): 1 [+ i4 X. a% ?5 }- y/ f2 T; F) C1983-87. Q8 }' _$ r* f6 Z
[5] Buffffetaut E, Grigorescu D, Csiki Z. A new giant pterosaur with a robust 3 ?9 E! M- B. H, Sskull from the latest cretaceous of Romania. Naturwissenschaften. 89 (4):2 F* r9 S8 u1 _1 G/ R( B
180-84. 0 K1 t+ h2 H v. m/ w[6] Devin Powell. Were pterosaurs too big to flfly?2 Q( l" ^3 ^0 p! m) c# k
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20026763-800-were-pterosaurs# [: H1 L- l3 B% k' M
too-big-to-flfly/) J4 O! |2 D' O6 A3 }) K
[7] Templin, R. J.; Chatterjee, Sankar. Posture, locomotion, and paleoecology 0 H: Q Y5 O" Wof pterosaurs. Boulder, Colo: Geological Society of America. p. 60.$ v; K& D) ]9 V9 i
[8] Naish, Darren. Pterosaurs breathed in bird-like fashion and had inflflatable( k3 G. p0 R" x5 O4 ^1 L
air sacs in their wings.2 Q, s4 f J2 c7 Z) D1 \
https://scienceblogs.com/tetrapodzoology/2009/02/18/pterosaur 3 D9 N# Z8 M3 B, Z! xbreathing-air-sacs8 `, T2 f9 c# ?, x ]& ?
[9] Mark Witton. Why pterosaurs weren’t so scary after all. h! Q5 c1 g2 A0 W7 Yhttps://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/aug/11/pterosaurs-fossils" x( t( D( F& G& C; ]/ E# \' @
research-mark-witton: _- l4 Z! C/ I& U$ u
[10] Jeffff Hecht. Did giant pterosaurs vault aloft like vampire bats?" _# z' \6 o: @# H0 j+ d( m
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19724-did-giant-pterosaurs% X5 {. b" ?+ F6 C& C5 b0 G, } j. B
vault-aloft-like-vampire-bats/ ( D" Y+ x6 a- H' m % k S$ m* ^ ], Q20228 L+ S% B9 g8 N
Certifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling ' m- _; [) R- \$ e; X [( ihttp://mcm.tzmcm.cn. J" j h w+ f% E* G
Problem B (MCM) 1 G, n& t4 A) p M+ ^The Genetic Process of Sequences2 K% [7 a$ R P
Sequence homology is the biological homology between DNA, RNA, or protein 6 l. [8 }' h8 P4 `9 Nsequences, defifined in terms of shared ancestry in the evolutionary history of 8 U8 l, D, N: L$ D' }+ S. i* a/ R, Hlife[1]. Homology among DNA, RNA, or proteins is typically inferred from their) E% b# a) W4 V$ e/ p" @
nucleotide or amino acid sequence similarity. Signifificant similarity is strong * o: R6 m7 j c7 H1 c5 y- [8 Eevidence that two sequences are related by evolutionary changes from a common3 e& j$ }6 H/ _* e5 g, L2 l
ancestral sequence[2]., E4 ]+ y6 I- F$ D# O5 `
Consider the genetic process of a RNA sequence, in which mutations in nu + Q" ^1 h% d( p; O/ X. ]6 Z- x% a7 ycleotide bases occur by chance. For simplicity, we assume the sequence mutation1 {- t1 h6 H0 ]; ?! B( R
arise due to the presence of change (transition or transversion), insertion and 4 D, V% T) I! ?( adeletion of a single base. So we can measure the distance of two sequences by7 D: \$ }9 H* F$ X5 }' ?6 |
the amount of mutation points. Multiple base sequences that are close together / w$ a! k1 e& q5 b2 Ecan form a family, and they are considered homologous.! r v9 b$ `9 D: U' n
Your team are asked to develop a reasonable mathematical model to com+ b d7 m% r: Y. S: I" n
plete the following problems. , U" W* }: @- {1. Please design an algorithm that quickly measures the distance between % I6 l% j6 [$ u* s' A" ftwo suffiffifficiently long(> 103 bases) base sequences. ; g* z9 K6 a7 D3 c5 {) e7 l2. Please evaluate the complexity and accuracy of the algorithm reliably, and# Q1 N7 d1 L7 O" f
design suitable examples to illustrate it. 2 M& X- v7 R! H7 t3. If multiple base sequences in a family have evolved from a common an ! e" Q H+ u8 b1 kcestral sequence, design an effiffifficient algorithm to determine the ancestral6 h3 O2 L: X& D. F% Y4 m0 d2 w
sequence, and map the genealogical tree. , S4 }% f2 I" b9 R+ XReferences / a7 r: J9 e F& `: \+ p, j! S/ r[1] Koonin EV. “Orthologs, paralogs, and evolutionary genomics”. Annual Re 4 M5 C% L5 Q) |/ }9 K# K0 hview of Genetics. 39: 30938, 2005.4 F* {% ^; y: `% Y4 i) y
[2] Reeck GR, de Han C, Teller DC, Doolittle RF, Fitch WM, Dickerson RE,& W) L8 `$ M( v3 @* e. d0 F
et al. “Homology” in proteins and nucleic acids: a terminology muddle and 7 X; v5 v' {) `a way out of it. Cell. 50 (5): 667, 1987. 2 w$ Y( b# d# o, h" n: C. Y: Y% ?' k1 }
2022% Q5 Q8 a1 l& o, _9 G- D
Certifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling . J" R, F g9 ~http://mcm.tzmcm.cn 5 q( l8 I H0 ~% g- K `Problem C (ICM) ! `0 S2 G. ]# F, }( NClassify Human Activities! C8 Q1 K; q+ @- s% D
One important aspect of human behavior understanding is the recognition and& e# k, E- e. C
monitoring of daily activities. A wearable activity recognition system can im( M. n) j: R: T, @
prove the quality of life in many critical areas, such as ambulatory monitor, {7 R, x# n" ]( I& z
ing, home-based rehabilitation, and fall detection. Inertial sensor based activ 3 J. } X) z7 City recognition systems are used in monitoring and observation of the elderly+ X/ T/ p+ o/ O; A' ^
remotely by personal alarm systems[1], detection and classifification of falls[2], . W4 z0 v$ Z p K- `medical diagnosis and treatment[3], monitoring children remotely at home or in8 e' ^/ [* i. E, l# K& `: G- `1 m
school, rehabilitation and physical therapy , biomechanics research, ergonomics,7 r+ ~7 ~7 {) [' D0 H! x& t6 V
sports science, ballet and dance, animation, fifilm making, TV, live entertain/ V7 E5 K- u, T5 T6 `; U" @
ment, virtual reality, and computer games[4]. We try to use miniature inertial - J9 O! i, A j: v) j" I! Esensors and magnetometers positioned on difffferent parts of the body to classify 9 s. K3 e8 e4 V0 |7 X- k& w, Ehuman activities, the following data were obtained.* W. l0 i8 ?- k
Each of the 19 activities is performed by eight subjects (4 female, 4 male,2 Y/ Y! y: C4 ^6 u) M- y9 r. ]
between the ages 20 and 30) for 5 minutes. Total signal duration is 5 minutes 0 @9 A4 j4 p! K) {! G: i; Yfor each activity of each subject. The subjects are asked to perform the activ( r, ^% y) ]& z8 G# V" }
ities in their own style and were not restricted on how the activities should be9 D% M2 g( l$ W+ Z A9 w6 E
performed. For this reason, there are inter-subject variations in the speeds and 2 e' X0 |& h7 q5 W; C F7 c+ \amplitudes of some activities.. ]. k3 g/ n8 H, E/ ~# T* j* Y
Sensor units are calibrated to acquire data at 25 Hz sampling frequency. + @6 X5 D* z. U. rThe 5-min signals are divided into 5-sec segments so that 480(= 60 × 8) signal . Y9 q: U3 R$ x& U! f$ |/ |4 {4 Ysegments are obtained for each activity. + r' V O# P# H3 Z3 L5 |The 19 activities are:+ D3 d/ r! _6 P# I1 C( F6 B7 b
1. Sitting (A1);5 q6 l7 s" d, i1 Y; m
2. Standing (A2);! T. R$ N8 N8 J) H
3. Lying on back (A3);- I# p) R) o- @( H- @9 G% {: d0 X3 V
4. Lying on right side (A4);, ?* C4 ^# k% s
5. Ascending stairs (A5); 3 R' \5 C' _! I) @+ B% u$ c16. Descending stairs (A6); ) ~! p8 u' D6 d) ]) O# s4 z7. Standing in an elevator still (A7); ) m( T, } T8 L3 N- L8 g0 x( W/ f8. Moving around in an elevator (A8); 5 r9 Z: @8 [$ E e7 k" t4 S2 ?9. Walking in a parking lot (A9); ! e; @$ g, j( i+ T+ V10. Walking on a treadmill with a speed of 4 km/h in flflat position and 15 deg- b( X" w+ X( O
inclined positions (A10);) F. f, m, e' o$ `8 G
11. Walking on a treadmill with a speed of 4 km/h in 15 deg inclined positions , z1 x& a& y+ `% N$ L% K5 J2 }9 [(A11);6 a( y' d+ |/ ]7 ?0 P
12. Running on a treadmill with a speed of 8 km/h (A12); ) X* G) J; D0 X# B13. Exercising on a stepper (A13); % v3 A9 G* B0 Y1 u3 h+ u14. Exercising on a cross trainer (A14); % w- `* P; c( j2 Q/ S15. Cycling on an exercise bike in horizontal position (A15); 0 c' N' ^" F" x16. Cycling on an exercise bike in vertical position (A16);0 [% \1 d6 a$ i* Q0 {
17. Rowing (A17); # N: ~. u; K2 }1 f4 Y9 {- ?18. Jumping (A18); 7 e: n4 k- u, t19. Playing basketball (A19). - a* G. p; C5 A- d/ u% l) _Your team are asked to develop a reasonable mathematical model to solve ; \' a" q& o/ _" n/ nthe following problems. ( j5 C5 @% }* |4 F* J9 o1. Please design a set of features and an effiffifficient algorithm in order to classify " J% m6 q+ N" F$ ^+ {$ ?the 19 types of human actions from the data of these body-worn sensors.4 C5 Y' g( Z4 F1 A
2. Because of the high cost of the data, we need to make the model have $ L9 n! T: l4 U8 B; ]& g/ s' Ha good generalization ability with a limited data set. We need to study & u! S0 h6 [4 k. |and evaluate this problem specififically. Please design a feasible method to7 j1 k6 w; d- h0 ?% i7 ?
evaluate the generalization ability of your model. ; a* |. h. A! q4 u1 j5 Y; v4 A; [3. Please study and overcome the overfifitting problem so that your classififi-3 W1 C8 {9 G/ ]- n* S& ^+ X
cation algorithm can be widely used on the problem of people’s action# l9 K/ L" a$ x
classifification. 2 q+ s5 O# N. c- m1 Z# Z9 jThe complete data can be downloaded through the following link:, m' f7 o. d6 i* Z
https://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CJUOrpy8oq( C' e7 e' _- v
2Appendix: File structure2 m6 |. j) P7 \( C# D6 G# A7 q
• 19 activities (a) ) P; B- c. X2 S. A3 s6 x5 O- N• 8 subjects (p)6 y4 [0 U+ ]3 A% M# y; j
• 60 segments (s) w; z; Q& X% [# B9 `7 i• 5 units on torso (T), right arm (RA), left arm (LA), right leg (RL), left % j" n0 i2 u, P# N5 ?leg (LL) u+ @% M$ h1 P4 ]: { ]• 9 sensors on each unit (x, y, z accelerometers, x, y, z gyroscopes, x, y, z2 {$ a( J% l% L$ r/ q& R$ n; L h8 i
magnetometers) # Z- a3 c) y7 P: O% wFolders a01, a02, ..., a19 contain data recorded from the 19 activities.( t+ t6 U4 ]- }/ _+ }- w; X
For each activity, the subfolders p1, p2, ..., p8 contain data from each of the* U+ P5 W6 I% [ L
8 subjects.3 q& P: h; m! U( a# X
In each subfolder, there are 60 text fifiles s01, s02, ..., s60, one for each # U" A# Y* N2 n k2 r; @ @segment.0 k+ ^! q- q' U% X* R8 y
In each text fifile, there are 5 units × 9 sensors = 45 columns and 5 sec × 25 6 c4 d D) J' V0 ~/ G+ u0 zHz = 125 rows. & y; |. n! v. m/ b2 QEach column contains the 125 samples of data acquired from one of the 2 [* }- h# X6 k& f: Jsensors of one of the units over a period of 5 sec.: H b+ J- Z7 i5 p% V
Each row contains data acquired from all of the 45 sensor axes at a particular% u: T; L* T" G
sampling instant separated by commas. 2 j' C8 J, a: j; _1 f$ DColumns 1-45 correspond to:8 t1 G% i7 `7 i- Q7 A
• T_xacc, T_yacc, T_zacc, T_xgyro, ..., T_ymag, T_zmag,) s, M6 S- K; T+ j& D
• RA_xacc, RA_yacc, RA_zacc, RA_xgyro, ..., RA_ymag, RA_zmag, : o7 x! b. g+ C ^# I f• LA_xacc, LA_yacc, LA_zacc, LA_xgyro, ..., LA_ymag, LA_zmag, " C \ x9 p2 ^• RL_xacc, RL_yacc, RL_zacc, RL_xgyro, ..., RL_ymag, RL_zmag," w W {+ k1 S) `3 ^5 F! |
• LL_xacc, LL_yacc, LL_zacc, LL_xgyro, ..., LL_ymag, LL_zmag., b4 i8 I, ?4 r4 P7 k& ?4 m
Therefore, ' t0 E- s/ q$ w" q7 G5 L• columns 1-9 correspond to the sensors in unit 1 (T), ! @. O( I& x5 K1 R' i8 d• columns 10-18 correspond to the sensors in unit 2 (RA),4 w! j% g- [. c- `4 r
• columns 19-27 correspond to the sensors in unit 3 (LA), + g4 n' K6 T9 t' y• columns 28-36 correspond to the sensors in unit 4 (RL), " D' y* X& Z1 I" V• columns 37-45 correspond to the sensors in unit 5 (LL).: f7 a% y# |# N; o
3References6 w/ T! V, r3 g( w2 f( q: |4 }5 r) D
[1] Mathie M.J., Celler B.G., Lovell N.H., Coster A.C.F. Classifification of basic . J- R" D. [; i J. \: v6 S4 z- Wdaily movements using a triaxial accelerometer. Med. Biol. Eng. Comput. . h# a" R7 T. X2 i$ F42(5), 679-687, 2004 & l" b9 L; l. d[2] Kangas M., Konttila A., Lindgren P., Winblad I., Ja¨msa¨ T. Comparison of % N1 A1 x# M' B4 ]# b) U, y, l8 T6 m2 xlow-complexity fall detection algorithms for body attached accelerometers. : H0 Q) j6 U8 V0 P& LGait Posture 28(2), 285-291, 2008 0 U: N3 a) ?4 k2 S: ~[3] Wu W.H., Bui A.A.T., Batalin M.A., Liu D., Kaiser W.J. Incremental diag4 F* r5 [* B9 \
nosis method for intelligent wearable sensor system. IEEE T. Inf. Technol. 0 s; p6 B( Q: C! G1 y- bB. 11(5), 553-562, 2007 ) M0 \: H* N* t7 Z0 Z/ L, F. b- b1 K0 I[4] Shiratori T., Hodgins J.K. Accelerometer-based user interfaces for the con* K& P( u8 F5 _( X% E& J4 i8 a
trol of a physically simulated character. ACM T. Graphic. 27(5), 2008 " X* |/ [5 n/ z- Z2 f2 ?3 C1 I 4 ]% q& H$ ^4 ~/ r0 \5 w0 ^6 B2022) w/ A) c3 G0 ~$ ]; b. y3 E& f( `
Certifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling " Q# d' e# f. E' l' {' Ehttp://mcm.tzmcm.cn# Y8 q( k8 b% K8 T- d x
Problem D (ICM) ) c1 V# B$ ~9 \% [" h2 L1 R' qWhether Wildlife Trade Should Be Banned for a Long 9 U1 [; F3 {5 o7 b9 ZTime7 u# c, i+ H, l7 k
Wild-animal markets are the suspected origin of the current outbreak and the4 T1 J* r6 j; J1 p1 c7 i c- O ]
2002 SARS outbreak, And eating wild meat is thought to have been a source & n4 d* J4 k2 y2 v( sof the Ebola virus in Africa. Chinas top law-making body has permanently: ?4 i2 j3 S. ]0 [
tightened rules on trading wildlife in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, 7 T" a5 y4 _! k- @4 {# C, X3 H, vwhich is thought to have originated in a wild-animal market in Wuhan. Some 9 F, N$ D# S$ u2 p% Bscientists speculate that the emergency measure will be lifted once the outbreak* N2 L& E! ~% B+ X
ends.7 L$ P5 Z8 Q' D4 y
How the trade in wildlife products should be regulated in the long term? 5 C+ u1 a+ r/ ~* H. y! U% C9 {Some researchers want a total ban on wildlife trade, without exceptions, whereas 0 r, B2 W# Y. e$ _others say sustainable trade of some animals is possible and benefificial for peo4 D8 D/ m: Z; ^) D5 z1 M( k) X
ple who rely on it for their livelihoods. Banning wild meat consumption could $ J3 z' c* B( T9 |) n& Ycost the Chinese economy 50 billion yuan (US $ 7.1 billion) and put one mil/ T: M4 b7 e3 L% Z$ l4 l2 ]
lion people out of a job, according to estimates from the non-profifit Society of' O* p( a8 J# H' f2 ]' `; d
Entrepreneurs and Ecology in Beijing." C# v* x Z$ R* z0 z4 {( H
A team led by Shi Zheng-Li and Cui Jie of the Wuhan Institute of Virology3 E& y0 J8 Y8 V ^8 Y/ v: M# O
in China, chasing the origin of the deadly SARS virus, have fifinally found their& Z7 E" k8 ^$ q2 N
smoking gun in 2017. In a remote cave in Yunnan province, virologists have" }; q# u+ q( ^$ t- H# B, ]. p9 j( A
identifified a single population of horseshoe bats that harbours virus strains with9 P5 J! \ y# L* v
all the genetic building blocks of the one that jumped to humans in 2002, killing- U( u$ {4 u; A8 i8 d; F) ^0 x0 F5 K
almost 800 people around the world. The killer strain could easily have arisen1 f# i# D- h0 v3 d ~
from such a bat population, the researchers report in PLoS Pathogens on 30 7 T5 c* g7 d0 ^: @4 }November, 2017. Another outstanding question is how a virus from bats in ' y* w }, q! ^3 q- d1 `& ]Yunnan could travel to animals and humans around 1,000 kilometres away in3 N+ R3 d# S0 n/ x) v% y ]
Guangdong, without causing any suspected cases in Yunnan itself. Wildlife 3 R) A+ R5 _6 o) mtrade is the answer. Although wild animals are cooked at high temperature( C6 }7 R$ l$ W+ [" X3 Z
when eating, some viruses are diffiffifficult to survive, humans may come into contact Z4 R7 Y& y' I# t& |with animal secretions in the wildlife market. They warn that the ingredients4 Z/ u) w& u7 q; ?
are in place for a similar disease to emerge again.# \& p& a c$ R& B# E
Wildlife trade has many negative effffects, with the most important ones being: + W$ g! p7 @- G7 A E1Figure 1: Masked palm civets sold in markets in China were linked to the SARS3 ]; }5 K/ s: f- D6 p5 d0 `
outbreak in 2002.Credit: Matthew Maran/NPL7 B8 k8 a/ `& l) [
• Decline and extinction of populations4 N6 y H! \" @& G
• Introduction of invasive species 4 d3 X. ^! a$ Y+ t• Spread of new diseases to humans& R& r2 b* d }. t" S2 z
We use the CITES trade database as source for my data. This database3 k" f/ }" V) h& ?' w. g9 q# z
contains more than 20 million records of trade and is openly accessible. The 7 E2 L$ Z2 N7 E% s, F% A" Eappendix is the data on mammal trade from 1990 to 2021, and the complete - z9 i2 \5 g |9 V% [5 R1 Adatabase can also be obtained through the following link: % b1 d/ c% S5 c6 X4 @0 t6 h2 h$ _https://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CKACoDDpEJ $ Q4 W- k* u1 Q p( U4 z% YRequirements Your team are asked to build reasonable mathematical mod/ I* C3 K/ g5 h0 x8 D: n7 l
els, analyze the data, and solve the following problems:: |; A/ ?" m& ?, \. Y/ t) e
1. Which wildlife groups and species are traded the most (in terms of live0 F2 q! M9 ~" w5 n4 p& U
animals taken from the wild)?5 M* G# y9 X* z. K
2. What are the main purposes for trade of these animals?! S! ]6 F; M0 I
3. How has the trade changed over the past two decades (2003-2022)?% |- a4 y6 N2 G% I) F
4. Whether the wildlife trade is related to the epidemic situation of major; U5 \- ^! g: ?% U: [
infectious diseases? * B* ]" S/ {3 h8 x1 W25. Do you agree with banning on wildlife trade for a long time? Whether it ( `7 A& p; h$ K6 @0 bwill have a great impact on the economy and society, and why? 1 b, [. W0 w- S/ B i6. Write a letter to the relevant departments of the US government to explain : s/ R6 H4 E4 B6 [! syour views and policy suggestions.# w; l2 P L0 m. _
* Z2 Y, ~2 M8 X% K- l 7 Z. j/ z! f; L/ _ b% D' u! u* v, Q$ g; U& j! | 6 [" R n" i8 U* ?% e4 G. J: k/ W5 d3 Y3 }
q& |' M' C& l$ w+ }" s! x. x