2021数模美赛C题翻译思路

杨利霞

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]2021数模美赛C题翻译思路
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In September 2019, a colony of Vespa mandarinia (also known as the Asian giant hornet) was
discovered on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada. The nest was quickly destroyed,
but the news of the event spread rapidly throughout the area. Since that time, several confirmed
sightings of the pest have occurred in neighboring Washington State, as well as a multitude of
mistaken sightings. See Figure 1 below for a map of detections, hornet watches, and public
sightings.
Figure 1: Map depicting Asian Giant Hornet Detections, as
well as Hornet Watch and Public Siting locations.1
Vespa mandarinia is the largest species of hornet in the world, and the occurrence of the nest was
alarming. Additionally, the giant hornet is a predator of European honeybees, invading and
destroying their nests. A small number of the hornets are capable of destroying a whole colony
of European honeybees in a short time. At the same time, they are voracious predators of other
insects that are considered agricultural pests.
The life cycle of this hornet is similar to many other wasps. Fertilized queens emerge in the
spring and begin a new colony. In the fall, new queens leave the nest and will spend the winter in
the soil waiting for the spring. A new queen has a range estimated at 30km for establishing her
nest. More detailed information on Asian hornets is included in the problem attachments and can
also be found online.
Due to the potential severe impact on local honeybee populations, the presence of Vespa
mandarinia can cause a good deal of anxiety. The State of Washington has created helplines and
a website for people to report sightings of these hornets. Based on these reports from the public,
the state must decide how to prioritize its limited resources to follow-up with additional
investigation. While some reports have been determined to be Vespa mandarinia, many other
sightings have turned out to be other types of insects.
The primary questions for this problem are “How can we interpret the data provided by the
public reports?” and “What strategies can we use to prioritize these public reports for additional
investigation given the limited resources of government agencies?”
Your paper should explore and address the following aspects:
 Address and discuss whether or not the spread of this pest over time can be predicted,
and with what level of precision.
 Most reported sightings mistake other hornets for the Vespa mandarinia. Use only the
data set file provided, and (possibly) the image files provided, to create, analyze, and
discuss a model that predicts the likelihood of a mistaken classification.
 Use your model to discuss how your classification analyses leads to prioritizing
investigation of the reports most likely to be positive sightings.
 Address how you could update your model given additional new reports over time, and
how often the updates should occur.
 Using your model, what would constitute evidence that the pest has been eradicated in
Washington State?
Finally, your report should include a two-page memorandum that summarizes your results for
the Washington State Department of Agriculture.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
 One-page Summary Sheet.
 Table of Contents.
 Your complete solution.
 Two-page Memorandum.  References list.
Note: The MCM Contest now has a 25 page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward
the 25 page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Reference List and any Appendices).
You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by
copyright laws. Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.
General Guidelines for Problem C
In addition to the specific requirements listed above please keep in mind that this is a statistical
modeling exercise. Submissions are expected to adhere to best practices associated with the use
of data. Some examples of these expectations include but are not limited to the following:
 Define all metrics and cost functions that you use.
 Any estimate of a parameter should include an interval estimate.
 Any result should include estimates with respect to the goodness of fit of the results.
 All assumptions should be clearly stated especially with respect to distributions
associated with the data or errors.
 All assumptions associated with the data should be checked, and the robustness of a
technique with respect to those assumptions should be examined.
 All assumptions associated with an approach or technique should be clearly stated.
Attachments
We provide the four following materials for this problem. THE DATA FILES PROVIDED
CONTAIN THE ONLY DATA YOU SHOULD USE FOR THIS PROBLEM.

• 2021MCM_ProblemC_Vespamandarinia.pdf
  Background information from Pennsylvania State University Extension that describes the insect.
• 2021MCM_ProblemC_DataSet.xlsx
  A spreadsheet with 4440 reports of sightings with the following fields:
  GlobalID: a unique label for each sighting record.
  Detection Date: the reported date of the sighting.
  Notes: comments provided by the person submitting the report. This can be a member of
  the public, or occasionally a state employee.
  Lab Status: the official classification of the sighting by the state department of
  agriculture after analysis. Positive ID means it is confirmed as an Asian Giant Hornet.
  Negative ID means it is excluded. Unprocessed means it has not yet been classified.
  Unverified means no determination was made due to lack of information.
  Lab Comments: what the state entomology lab added to the record after analysis.
  Submission Date: the date the report was made to the state. This date can be significantly
  after the detection date.
  Latitude (of sighting): these data are provided by the state after converting the address
  provided by the report.
  Longitude (of sighting): these data are provided by the state after converting the address
  provided by the report.
• 2021MCM_ProblemC_Files.rar
  A rar file with 3305 images submitted with the sighting reports.
  The 662MB file can be downloaded from:
  http://www.comapmath.com/MCMICM/2021MCM_ProblemC_Files.rar
  A password is required to open the file: Af6SP7rdm33PxPJmDb4wZq7cw
• 2021MCM ProblemC_ Images_by_GlobalID.xlsx
  A spreadsheet mapping the images to the sightings with the following fields:
  FileName: the name of an image in the rar folder.
  GlobalID: a unique label for each sighting record. This is consistent across the two
  spreadsheets.
  FileType: Images arrive as .jpg, .pdf, .png, .jfif, octet-stream, xml open format, or .zip
  files. Videos arrive as .mp4 or quicktime files.
  Reference
• Washington State Department of Agriculture. 2020 Asian Giant Hornet Public
  Dashboard. https://agr.wa.gov/departments/insects-pests-and-weeds/insects/hornets/data
  Accessed 11/5/2020
  

2021百万
问题C：确认关于黄蜂的传言
2019年9月，一个胡蜂群落（又称亚洲大黄蜂）被发现
发现于加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的温哥华岛。巢穴很快就被毁了，
但这一事件的消息迅速传遍了整个地区。从那时起，有几个人证实
在邻近的华盛顿州已经发现了这种有害生物，还有许多其他地方
错误的目击。下面的图1显示了探测、大黄蜂手表和公众号的地图
目击。
图1：亚洲大黄蜂探测图
以及大黄蜂观察和公共选址地点。1
胡蜂（Vespa mandarinia）是世界上最大的大黄蜂种类，其巢的发生率很低
令人震惊。此外，大黄蜂是欧洲蜜蜂的食肉动物，入侵和繁殖
破坏它们的巢穴。少量的黄蜂能够摧毁整个蜂群
在很短的时间内欧洲蜜蜂的数量。同时，它们也是其他物种贪婪的掠食者
被认为是农业害虫的昆虫。
大黄蜂的生命周期与其他许多黄蜂相似。受精后出现在
春天开始了一个新的殖民地。秋天，新蜂王离开巢，将在家里过冬
等待春天到来的土壤。一个新的女王的射程估计为30公里
筑巢。关于亚洲黄蜂的更详细的信息包含在问题附件中，可以查看
也可以在网上找到。
由于对当地蜜蜂种群的潜在严重影响，胡蜂的存在
柑桔会引起很大的焦虑。华盛顿州已经建立了帮助热线和
一个供人们报告这些黄蜂目击情况的网站。根据公众的报告，
国家必须决定如何优先利用其有限的资源，采取后续行动，提供更多的资源
调查。虽然有些报道被确定为胡蜂，但其他许多报道都是胡蜂
发现的是其他种类的昆虫。
这个问题的主要问题是“我们如何解释
公开报道？以及“我们可以用什么策略来确定这些公共报告的优先次序，以获得更多的信息？”
在政府机构资源有限的情况下进行调查？”
你的论文应该探讨和解决以下几个方面：
解决并讨论是否可以预测这种有害生物随时间的传播，
精确到什么程度。
大多数报道的目击都把其他黄蜂误认为是胡蜂。只使用
提供的数据集文件，以及（可能）提供的图像文件，以创建、分析和
讨论预测错误分类可能性的模型。
使用您的模型讨论分类分析如何导致优先排序
调查报告最有可能是正面目击。
说明随着时间的推移，您如何更新您的模型，以及
更新的频率。
使用你的模型，有什么证据可以证明该害虫已被消灭
华盛顿州？
最后，你的报告应该包括一份两页的备忘录，总结你的研究结果
华盛顿州农业部。
总页数不超过25页的PDF解决方案应包括：
一页总结表。
目录。
您的完整解决方案。
两页备忘录。参考文献清单。
注：MCM竞赛现在有25页的限制。你提交的材料的所有方面都是重要的
25页的限制（摘要表、目录、参考列表和任何附录）。
您不应使用未经授权的图像和材料，这些图像和材料的使用受到法律的限制
版权法。确保你在报告中引用你的想法和材料的来源。
问题C的一般准则
除了上面列出的具体要求，请记住这是一个统计数据
建模练习。提交文件应遵循与使用相关的最佳实践
大量的数据。这些期望的一些例子包括但不限于：
定义您使用的所有指标和成本函数。
参数的任何估计应包括区间估计。
任何结果应包括结果拟合优度的估计。
应明确说明所有假设，尤其是关于分配的假设
与数据或错误相关联。
应检查与数据相关的所有假设，以及
应检查与这些假设有关的技术。
应明确说明与方法或技术相关的所有假设。
附件
针对这个问题，我们提供了以下四种材料。提供的数据文件
包含此问题应使用的唯一数据。
12021MCM\U问题_维斯帕曼达里尼亚.pdf
来自宾夕法尼亚州立大学的背景资料描述了这种昆虫。
22021MCM\U问题_数据集.xlsx