2022小美赛赛题的移动云盘下载地址 ! b# c$ ~; i& j- @/ @
https://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CJAMhGgSJx& D: A s( f+ o2 h5 O
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2022 6 y' N! v' t, {$ t- v" G/ Q: X9 ZCertifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling# {1 l4 x, }: ~, J( p# E
http://mcm.tzmcm.cn ( k( _& f5 F% mProblem A (MCM) 0 a, F: E% a2 q. A: tHow Pterosaurs Fly5 F. ^& l7 w9 i! X( V$ P4 Z6 c: p! |
Pterosaurs is an extinct clade of flflying reptiles in the order, Pterosauria. They , P" }- Y9 c7 f s f: _existed during most of the Mesozoic: from the Late Triassic to the end of * W6 F4 _# s+ j5 e$ H$ k; Lthe Cretaceous. Pterosaurs are the earliest vertebrates known to have evolved, ~, Z- K& t, b# |
powered flflight. Their wings were formed by a membrane of skin, muscle, and 4 d0 Q9 V' G4 }1 }' L& Pother tissues stretching from the ankles to a dramatically lengthened fourth. w! s# Q ?0 [$ S5 k; h* k
fifinger[1].7 t" `4 [0 S; t }8 Q3 k/ h
There were two major types of pterosaurs. Basal pterosaurs were smaller : {1 H7 e0 ~( i! N% q! U4 zanimals with fully toothed jaws and long tails usually. Their wide wing mem3 I% \& r( u( s8 u, z
branes probably included and connected the hind legs. On the ground, they$ A# x) y$ J4 X, Y5 u
would have had an awkward sprawling posture, but their joint anatomy and ( {- b, Z2 W2 [9 tstrong claws would have made them effffective climbers, and they may have lived+ ` w7 G0 b; i$ [9 ?
in trees. Basal pterosaurs were insectivores or predators of small vertebrates.) ~" ?' L5 e- a8 c
Later pterosaurs (pterodactyloids) evolved many sizes, shapes, and lifestyles.5 m- ~, p, }8 G, ^# R6 d- o
Pterodactyloids had narrower wings with free hind limbs, highly reduced tails,, A. I7 X0 e& V h1 F( w+ E" C+ Y1 S
and long necks with large heads. On the ground, pterodactyloids walked well on 5 `' q9 k4 @5 H7 Q- z! ]all four limbs with an upright posture, standing plantigrade on the hind feet and6 ]& l* ^5 L3 q+ C. U8 G4 ~# S" U9 Q
folding the wing fifinger upward to walk on the three-fifingered “hand”. The fossil* ]% P1 }( A7 j j0 J* t1 |
trackways show at least some species were able to run and wade or swim[2]. , R! Y$ o9 f: I s. ^Pterosaurs sported coats of hair-like fifilaments known as pycnofifibers, which 1 G% A' t: D% B+ ^covered their bodies and parts of their wings[3]. In life, pterosaurs would have & K) p% l4 i, j. D: e+ n5 R Bhad smooth or flfluffffy coats that did not resemble bird feathers. Earlier sug - `) B8 U8 ]: H/ K' |0 ~( a/ L8 Rgestions were that pterosaurs were largely cold-blooded gliding animals, de# E0 ~5 q u8 V# k; J
riving warmth from the environment like modern lizards, rather than burning- @$ x% z* v9 B- e
calories. However, later studies have shown that they may be warm-blooded" a% O5 I. F- k, u5 J7 H
(endothermic), active animals. The respiratory system had effiffifficient unidirec3 j) d# l$ ^7 t0 }
tional “flflow-through” breathing using air sacs, which hollowed out their bones* b2 Y3 @" Y* o5 G, }0 L6 ]
to an extreme extent. Pterosaurs spanned a wide range of adult sizes, from + X/ E; C+ S& {3 I/ o# Z0 c( tthe very small anurognathids to the largest known flflying creatures, including ( [/ @1 ]1 J5 k$ HQuetzalcoatlus and Hatzegopteryx[4][5], which reached wingspans of at least; ]: X( v/ J) B. R2 q4 g
nine metres. The combination of endothermy, a good oxygen supply and strong) ^0 r1 r& Z" ~+ W! W6 A/ B( I$ z
1muscles made pterosaurs powerful and capable flflyers. 8 |3 I: |1 d3 _: t% s2 iThe mechanics of pterosaur flflight are not completely understood or modeled; J/ J' ?. _, v# S! C- T
at this time. Katsufumi Sato did calculations using modern birds and concluded% b- T6 `$ ]6 c7 q* q- ~2 N! f7 B9 ?
that it was impossible for a pterosaur to stay aloft[6]. In the book Posture,: _' z, x/ e9 c( ^. W9 T
Locomotion, and Paleoecology of Pterosaurs it is theorized that they were able7 R- R7 U8 h$ {# |! |- Y d
to flfly due to the oxygen-rich, dense atmosphere of the Late Cretaceous period[7].# I& l4 s2 i% d9 c4 W* @6 {
However, both Sato and the authors of Posture, Locomotion, and Paleoecology7 X" V5 k( f- o& |. V! V
of Pterosaurs based their research on the now-outdated theories of pterosaurs 8 S8 f5 l* L- ^$ w" x" sbeing seabird-like, and the size limit does not apply to terrestrial pterosaurs, . K+ b2 l0 q/ f$ o3 M) f& zsuch as azhdarchids and tapejarids. Furthermore, Darren Naish concluded that - i+ m: W; U- Y& f: _7 Z" uatmospheric difffferences between the present and the Mesozoic were not needed 2 P; I* |8 D6 w6 ?# ]2 yfor the giant size of pterosaurs[8]. ! C- c: ~8 J+ j- Q/ OAnother issue that has been diffiffifficult to understand is how they took offff.# ^9 q; @) t/ [( i" [
If pterosaurs were cold-blooded animals, it was unclear how the larger ones ( _, r( Z) D7 Q+ Eof enormous size, with an ineffiffifficient cold-blooded metabolism, could manage* ]1 @( p8 q U5 M1 y o% @
a bird-like takeoffff strategy, using only the hind limbs to generate thrust for' ?1 d3 m, K9 J4 c, W9 ?; Z" f/ k7 P
getting airborne. Later research shows them instead as being warm-blooded 2 y" B4 h* M* x; G, z2 k) W& H2 ^and having powerful flflight muscles, and using the flflight muscles for walking as * W' ]2 O; M' L, T$ \' Oquadrupeds[9]. Mark Witton of the University of Portsmouth and Mike Habib of 6 V' O2 f9 V$ w) r- u m! kJohns Hopkins University suggested that pterosaurs used a vaulting mechanism , _4 }! d! C! p& H( c% T5 _( o$ zto obtain flflight[10]. The tremendous power of their winged forelimbs would ' r) V/ I1 Q" [enable them to take offff with ease[9]. Once aloft, pterosaurs could reach speeds ; J2 F5 d3 [+ t6 Eof up to 120 km/h and travel thousands of kilometres[10].! |5 ~8 I% r/ y8 ~) k* f# p2 i
Your team are asked to develop a reasonable mathematical model of the ( r2 f" H" b& V5 x% Hflflight process of at least one large pterosaur based on fossil measurements and , j1 L- J! R* wto answer the following questions. ! |! i x* c6 x+ L1. For your selected pterosaur species, estimate its average speed during nor $ `; L& {. C o0 M; @8 J% @mal flflight. " }) X6 d6 `) I8 ?7 {2. For your selected pterosaur species, estimate its wing-flflap frequency during/ g0 x" J! q: [9 ?& q: u
normal flflight.; b) X) ^9 h& K: I1 Y$ v% ~
3. Study how large pterosaurs take offff; is it possible for them to take offff like6 j7 x0 k3 p, V# Y! v
birds on flflat ground or on water? Explain the reasons quantitatively.( \" q( ` }2 \5 h5 P# X
References 8 A, S1 U; m5 y! h8 i: K! x! o[1] Elgin RA, Hone DW, Frey E (2011). The Extent of the Pterosaur Flight " t, `- x) E, h8 oMembrane. Acta Palaeontologica Polonica. 56 (1): 99-111.& J4 p3 F u; E, i$ y
2[2] Mark Witton. Terrestrial Locomotion.9 M) ?6 d! n. L$ \/ Y$ B( J" u
https://pterosaur.net/terrestrial locomotion.php 6 @! r! T4 h1 E; I[3] Laura Geggel. It’s Offiffifficial: Those Flying Reptiles Called Pterosaurs 1 H6 i2 F* _, _. Z0 P) J# q# e8 ~Were Covered in Fluffffy Feathers. https://www.livescience.com/64324-: Z& L' L5 a9 H2 f* h' `: H K2 {
pterosaurs-had-feathers.html( F5 l4 m' Z }4 V9 g" y2 E
[4] Wang, X.; Kellner, A.W.A.; Zhou, Z.; Campos, D.A. (2008). Discovery of a # n2 b. x0 _7 K4 n. V1 Qrare arboreal forest-dwelling flflying reptile (Pterosauria, Pterodactyloidea) 7 D- {* R: q9 m8 l2 b1 z Gfrom China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105 (6): # }. N/ {: w5 W0 t# W/ k1983-87. H! n) S! B& _. p
[5] Buffffetaut E, Grigorescu D, Csiki Z. A new giant pterosaur with a robust 8 E- s3 ~2 p: d1 z4 X0 i2 t' _skull from the latest cretaceous of Romania. Naturwissenschaften. 89 (4):" F' o/ W: l# V9 H
180-84. " S$ L* z# x& Q1 U7 z6 g( Q[6] Devin Powell. Were pterosaurs too big to flfly?# R7 W" I6 W) s. F
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20026763-800-were-pterosaurs 8 S, S. T2 {4 ^2 dtoo-big-to-flfly/$ @% M6 E3 t, h S
[7] Templin, R. J.; Chatterjee, Sankar. Posture, locomotion, and paleoecology+ s, J' r, \1 {1 H* m' t: u1 @! Y
of pterosaurs. Boulder, Colo: Geological Society of America. p. 60.9 ^& b5 ^ X' V! C8 i
[8] Naish, Darren. Pterosaurs breathed in bird-like fashion and had inflflatable3 d- W/ J) @3 G. F- c* R
air sacs in their wings. / G' U) C. v- Mhttps://scienceblogs.com/tetrapodzoology/2009/02/18/pterosaur % y2 F: S- i% Q6 b- R* ]* \breathing-air-sacs4 l: ^7 ?( c7 U& R; y; h) c! d
[9] Mark Witton. Why pterosaurs weren’t so scary after all.* X: ^( A1 P: S
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/aug/11/pterosaurs-fossils3 ~0 r3 O/ `* @" T9 t! ~
research-mark-witton% k8 j M" Z x2 y
[10] Jeffff Hecht. Did giant pterosaurs vault aloft like vampire bats?- Q/ I* y' B) A5 ^: G
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19724-did-giant-pterosaurs # Q+ @7 C/ A0 @& s' }$ Cvault-aloft-like-vampire-bats/ # b- v# ^9 i) Y6 }- l' z' D" Y( g% s" w9 D% S% |
2022 ; m8 l. c- x( | c' {' TCertifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling4 g7 O7 V2 E5 K; M
http://mcm.tzmcm.cn 2 z% P- T4 R. _) X8 i6 n; A# `+ ~Problem B (MCM) - }; s% R; V1 SThe Genetic Process of Sequences % C3 ^- L0 B8 N% t5 @! |3 }. C' s( ]: ]Sequence homology is the biological homology between DNA, RNA, or protein* @- E8 E. @( i$ D( f) r |( n& ]7 K
sequences, defifined in terms of shared ancestry in the evolutionary history of& q; Y% k+ G( ]7 I6 P
life[1]. Homology among DNA, RNA, or proteins is typically inferred from their - ~* M, w9 f8 ^. a3 z: N, K, Q7 s( snucleotide or amino acid sequence similarity. Signifificant similarity is strong 9 _/ A# |! l; _+ ?2 `0 I) ?evidence that two sequences are related by evolutionary changes from a common - W$ Z. B0 P3 S; Xancestral sequence[2]. / ?% _/ c) \) S+ WConsider the genetic process of a RNA sequence, in which mutations in nu0 {+ x! s/ s. {
cleotide bases occur by chance. For simplicity, we assume the sequence mutation : m9 w. m' p2 C: iarise due to the presence of change (transition or transversion), insertion and6 M" A2 S! w: B) P9 _. [1 G" j
deletion of a single base. So we can measure the distance of two sequences by* _# z( B" p% f3 B& z1 S
the amount of mutation points. Multiple base sequences that are close together/ D7 t) n( o1 D1 X" f R* y
can form a family, and they are considered homologous.9 y% q: D0 [* k9 R' E! E8 |
Your team are asked to develop a reasonable mathematical model to com4 I3 a. _ |" b) h: y
plete the following problems.# ]- K F" C0 [$ V( h
1. Please design an algorithm that quickly measures the distance between* X1 ^0 q5 D- x4 V6 y6 e7 n- G4 D
two suffiffifficiently long(> 103 bases) base sequences. : D" M4 E9 V* b% L4 h- W# G2. Please evaluate the complexity and accuracy of the algorithm reliably, and+ L+ y. o- C8 h# O% g; Y, Q2 ]
design suitable examples to illustrate it. - B& s% x8 z4 @0 ~+ X% O; _- o3. If multiple base sequences in a family have evolved from a common an. j4 h; t1 m7 _! V5 o5 g7 ]5 T
cestral sequence, design an effiffifficient algorithm to determine the ancestral $ W- M9 H/ k, E1 y- N+ G9 i# H3 ysequence, and map the genealogical tree. , J5 {$ p, s& @1 U# w* [References ' s1 B( a# `/ {$ p3 P# z, Y$ _* e[1] Koonin EV. “Orthologs, paralogs, and evolutionary genomics”. Annual Re0 z: J+ U+ H, G) f, `9 {. H
view of Genetics. 39: 30938, 2005.* y8 B4 y, R; M& \; V
[2] Reeck GR, de Han C, Teller DC, Doolittle RF, Fitch WM, Dickerson RE,) d9 H* I3 p9 h, A
et al. “Homology” in proteins and nucleic acids: a terminology muddle and 6 @5 k; _' Z1 ~+ o i9 _4 da way out of it. Cell. 50 (5): 667, 1987.9 n0 J! k5 N4 Q, [2 _) k# k
( c* `1 P0 S5 |, y% H2022 / V: X, |. Z1 D9 H' y6 WCertifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling; L \" M6 S) f' X& r
http://mcm.tzmcm.cn , \! o7 g; v+ U! X, jProblem C (ICM)% X7 D" H: z$ |8 n1 V' I' n
Classify Human Activities, r+ `/ A5 I& H* t W! x! h
One important aspect of human behavior understanding is the recognition and0 F) M" T' c6 ~. v( ?9 m
monitoring of daily activities. A wearable activity recognition system can im6 Z. d* w: {/ J5 I5 z+ v
prove the quality of life in many critical areas, such as ambulatory monitor$ \& R% j" W6 M( J3 t8 U# q
ing, home-based rehabilitation, and fall detection. Inertial sensor based activ6 u( X! h7 w& H6 f/ r
ity recognition systems are used in monitoring and observation of the elderly+ ]3 T4 |, ^, c7 y# I# `
remotely by personal alarm systems[1], detection and classifification of falls[2],6 H) W8 Y& \4 {6 l: A! `# ]
medical diagnosis and treatment[3], monitoring children remotely at home or in/ G3 g( F* d+ u- M
school, rehabilitation and physical therapy , biomechanics research, ergonomics,) D G4 _8 f. d/ f7 l
sports science, ballet and dance, animation, fifilm making, TV, live entertain + d3 y: l& c n& J& l: y7 [5 Ament, virtual reality, and computer games[4]. We try to use miniature inertial3 |7 T; ~3 }" V+ Y# l* }
sensors and magnetometers positioned on difffferent parts of the body to classify * A( q* i5 u% Z8 {human activities, the following data were obtained." s# o) _$ n* S) F
Each of the 19 activities is performed by eight subjects (4 female, 4 male,: t% F& g3 l2 \8 M
between the ages 20 and 30) for 5 minutes. Total signal duration is 5 minutes 3 \7 c3 V) L8 b4 n/ Efor each activity of each subject. The subjects are asked to perform the activ1 Z3 ^; |3 }: x
ities in their own style and were not restricted on how the activities should be 0 C( I- P) y+ K. h0 T/ o- aperformed. For this reason, there are inter-subject variations in the speeds and; e; B) n; Q h$ R
amplitudes of some activities. , ~! K1 [' `! T1 ISensor units are calibrated to acquire data at 25 Hz sampling frequency.; Q9 g9 A1 [5 {
The 5-min signals are divided into 5-sec segments so that 480(= 60 × 8) signal , x( b# E: j% f1 ~1 i- isegments are obtained for each activity. 0 S! w" z) L- _) J( m; n! u# B9 dThe 19 activities are: V; g/ k) k: x+ Y
1. Sitting (A1); - i6 ]: E$ `5 q) F' P$ S2. Standing (A2);1 u8 J/ o/ Q& r z! _# e! z
3. Lying on back (A3);. e5 m+ ~9 ?& {7 e" Z
4. Lying on right side (A4);4 m0 h' W+ `2 Y d- c$ m
5. Ascending stairs (A5);, {1 ~" I. s/ n' R6 G& ?2 h4 t
16. Descending stairs (A6);! s, B: G( `2 h+ }1 q
7. Standing in an elevator still (A7); " I! v) z1 @% O! d- g& J+ s8. Moving around in an elevator (A8); 2 B& `: H5 [$ b9. Walking in a parking lot (A9); % T/ n" T& a, A. b( ?8 g- ?10. Walking on a treadmill with a speed of 4 km/h in flflat position and 15 deg 7 A; W3 K; O; zinclined positions (A10); - B1 L, j! V# |7 ?8 E11. Walking on a treadmill with a speed of 4 km/h in 15 deg inclined positions 8 w; z: m: N+ d(A11); ( s" k7 }* s# e& a' N12. Running on a treadmill with a speed of 8 km/h (A12); $ i7 m. J) I) }13. Exercising on a stepper (A13);- d1 h9 w& n$ O' L' j9 Q2 S2 [
14. Exercising on a cross trainer (A14);! f# Y4 _- N( w6 |; i% F8 ?+ E& o+ C. g
15. Cycling on an exercise bike in horizontal position (A15); 3 }! @2 O6 v) |/ Z16. Cycling on an exercise bike in vertical position (A16); 6 Y1 \- B& U# @, M. T( k" Q17. Rowing (A17);! {3 F" k% O, S' r. ^/ Z
18. Jumping (A18); ; B; c+ g/ w& D$ N4 o19. Playing basketball (A19). 3 v2 j0 E$ B$ SYour team are asked to develop a reasonable mathematical model to solve 8 _- u+ G6 }2 u& Rthe following problems.: P$ {7 e/ R3 I% H; n
1. Please design a set of features and an effiffifficient algorithm in order to classify + p: P8 h+ t* G+ l5 s. r% Uthe 19 types of human actions from the data of these body-worn sensors.0 c1 P( P7 o9 M$ A% I- Z
2. Because of the high cost of the data, we need to make the model have : A# k+ h7 d5 ?* {a good generalization ability with a limited data set. We need to study# t# N, A/ `$ z: ^
and evaluate this problem specififically. Please design a feasible method to- m, ] x9 L- Y6 a/ R" T
evaluate the generalization ability of your model.. |/ Q: X) j3 T1 t& t7 |& G0 B
3. Please study and overcome the overfifitting problem so that your classififi-. z* i/ ]6 O8 A9 f; a- S; k
cation algorithm can be widely used on the problem of people’s action: B) U; f1 }% M; z1 [4 L
classifification.8 I' @" `2 N- r% J" C9 o* R
The complete data can be downloaded through the following link: " a, T' ?' `, j$ Y( l- Chttps://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CJUOrpy8oq* E: k% b0 H, ~6 V Y5 |7 Q
2Appendix: File structure& t; w% d6 q2 ^6 h. T- `; x9 b7 v
• 19 activities (a)1 X) X/ B& F: a- x5 _. V; D# I
• 8 subjects (p)+ n- ^; L/ `! H% Q2 n. k
• 60 segments (s) + v' t" y1 |5 A( p• 5 units on torso (T), right arm (RA), left arm (LA), right leg (RL), left% S+ G; C# K" U" J
leg (LL) / ]% @9 g& B3 v* a• 9 sensors on each unit (x, y, z accelerometers, x, y, z gyroscopes, x, y, z6 i. E8 h1 O& x6 u* k4 I
magnetometers)7 r! y- M5 ?/ _' ?, `0 `3 n
Folders a01, a02, ..., a19 contain data recorded from the 19 activities. " O! B0 L" a2 [7 |2 [( [1 I, UFor each activity, the subfolders p1, p2, ..., p8 contain data from each of the 8 z/ z3 ^: [! d+ @0 N% u0 z8 subjects. - j- U E. u, K' [7 Y+ QIn each subfolder, there are 60 text fifiles s01, s02, ..., s60, one for each% w! F, I1 o- O; T D
segment. / I d% \ H6 m& ?' T% e4 o1 AIn each text fifile, there are 5 units × 9 sensors = 45 columns and 5 sec × 25: e- t% m: G: |3 [' @! t: T
Hz = 125 rows.( t0 P2 e: T5 A# ]$ a4 G5 z$ j
Each column contains the 125 samples of data acquired from one of the8 j$ X$ @) ~8 L
sensors of one of the units over a period of 5 sec.& s' a: |, w. j1 R8 i2 C% c" s
Each row contains data acquired from all of the 45 sensor axes at a particular : l7 ^/ V* y `- nsampling instant separated by commas.' `7 f5 t! j! M
Columns 1-45 correspond to:) G6 w2 { K& d# k- t
• T_xacc, T_yacc, T_zacc, T_xgyro, ..., T_ymag, T_zmag,* X# C' M" M0 n& e5 L2 F
• RA_xacc, RA_yacc, RA_zacc, RA_xgyro, ..., RA_ymag, RA_zmag,. M# G& {( v5 N0 A
• LA_xacc, LA_yacc, LA_zacc, LA_xgyro, ..., LA_ymag, LA_zmag, , T% ~7 X8 ^% k% A/ T# ~• RL_xacc, RL_yacc, RL_zacc, RL_xgyro, ..., RL_ymag, RL_zmag, 0 J( M. w# x1 \# _0 M• LL_xacc, LL_yacc, LL_zacc, LL_xgyro, ..., LL_ymag, LL_zmag. * [- `( @1 g+ V+ a! L2 h1 ?4 OTherefore, 9 t M0 b/ C# W. c• columns 1-9 correspond to the sensors in unit 1 (T),! T+ _ c9 }. \2 n
• columns 10-18 correspond to the sensors in unit 2 (RA), * p+ X! ~! t8 Y8 v/ V) ^• columns 19-27 correspond to the sensors in unit 3 (LA),& O/ S' Q4 G M# B x
• columns 28-36 correspond to the sensors in unit 4 (RL),6 m' X# }4 l7 _
• columns 37-45 correspond to the sensors in unit 5 (LL).0 W. y* h5 w+ U; g% u' @' b
3References 0 J$ @1 E2 }. O[1] Mathie M.J., Celler B.G., Lovell N.H., Coster A.C.F. Classifification of basic1 [) ]% p# }9 T
daily movements using a triaxial accelerometer. Med. Biol. Eng. Comput.7 N; I- g7 [- U7 e& Z
42(5), 679-687, 20042 N, G' n. g3 r: |1 `/ K
[2] Kangas M., Konttila A., Lindgren P., Winblad I., Ja¨msa¨ T. Comparison of* v' J; f/ ^6 e/ E( ^
low-complexity fall detection algorithms for body attached accelerometers.2 r5 n- \7 H2 k% R& M
Gait Posture 28(2), 285-291, 2008 ) q' `( K7 C0 {[3] Wu W.H., Bui A.A.T., Batalin M.A., Liu D., Kaiser W.J. Incremental diag 6 j5 e- S7 e. T6 X- y+ z/ Knosis method for intelligent wearable sensor system. IEEE T. Inf. Technol. 4 [. o5 k. Q) |. D8 jB. 11(5), 553-562, 2007 ) B$ j/ J* A- a[4] Shiratori T., Hodgins J.K. Accelerometer-based user interfaces for the con. P, a& N8 ^" M. _, z- X4 V2 [: O- C
trol of a physically simulated character. ACM T. Graphic. 27(5), 2008 $ m) a- Z [9 p+ R4 L6 j. i5 X8 y% \. ]/ a& W
2022 9 _* K8 l$ p7 pCertifificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling b5 N7 O* {' U3 f% a
http://mcm.tzmcm.cn" r' A# ~* O- D- ?0 I
Problem D (ICM)' K9 G0 C( h. O0 x: y, ^% X
Whether Wildlife Trade Should Be Banned for a Long M% L/ @9 s- ?7 L. k
Time * r9 v5 b' X2 X' |6 M' J, zWild-animal markets are the suspected origin of the current outbreak and the: ~+ p, \* }# t: ^0 @
2002 SARS outbreak, And eating wild meat is thought to have been a source ) y5 ?+ l) M+ h3 U* Z2 @of the Ebola virus in Africa. Chinas top law-making body has permanently ; w! \3 M, H: s* Ttightened rules on trading wildlife in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak,. C1 N, @, P# [* T' M+ d
which is thought to have originated in a wild-animal market in Wuhan. Some" ?4 f& r9 I. m
scientists speculate that the emergency measure will be lifted once the outbreak / d7 w8 \* L0 ~) Y) \/ Iends. 0 ^$ f1 m0 o8 U8 Q* D/ i N+ ^How the trade in wildlife products should be regulated in the long term? ! O5 F7 a: t3 q+ s, d4 DSome researchers want a total ban on wildlife trade, without exceptions, whereas ; t# s% @& B1 c! g$ Wothers say sustainable trade of some animals is possible and benefificial for peo8 c# ]! c3 a5 I+ n7 z, V' g# q3 w
ple who rely on it for their livelihoods. Banning wild meat consumption could 6 |" x( a( d' y0 d: F, ?cost the Chinese economy 50 billion yuan (US $ 7.1 billion) and put one mil 3 J) |7 B6 e" o" {5 Slion people out of a job, according to estimates from the non-profifit Society of . A( [6 ]3 @) P* }0 ^, y3 vEntrepreneurs and Ecology in Beijing. / u0 d6 f* X+ S* SA team led by Shi Zheng-Li and Cui Jie of the Wuhan Institute of Virology1 ^' [; M' N6 A7 ?
in China, chasing the origin of the deadly SARS virus, have fifinally found their5 k$ `' g3 r# ^" P% \9 g1 c% _/ ?+ b
smoking gun in 2017. In a remote cave in Yunnan province, virologists have+ ^- W( G8 N A) P @: P
identifified a single population of horseshoe bats that harbours virus strains with 4 f# y) x/ v8 S9 ^* ^$ gall the genetic building blocks of the one that jumped to humans in 2002, killing / V" v+ H$ G; e' e* W8 D) Walmost 800 people around the world. The killer strain could easily have arisen: K+ H* j) F6 P# X+ {, R4 \ X
from such a bat population, the researchers report in PLoS Pathogens on 30 F4 s+ w0 W6 F4 h% c: ?/ U d
November, 2017. Another outstanding question is how a virus from bats in9 P: X8 D1 Q+ d6 S% p
Yunnan could travel to animals and humans around 1,000 kilometres away in. `4 b0 f: [% k1 Q
Guangdong, without causing any suspected cases in Yunnan itself. Wildlife 1 h" h; n0 c3 _9 V& c! K4 b. ftrade is the answer. Although wild animals are cooked at high temperature + S. f/ h/ a; J% L i2 j0 J( e" U+ L% dwhen eating, some viruses are diffiffifficult to survive, humans may come into contact ' `* Y T6 O% K1 v! |with animal secretions in the wildlife market. They warn that the ingredients: G. Y# c+ Y8 u
are in place for a similar disease to emerge again.8 {. y' J# B4 R; t
Wildlife trade has many negative effffects, with the most important ones being:3 O- o0 i7 [7 i; e* Y, ^
1Figure 1: Masked palm civets sold in markets in China were linked to the SARS# f" J/ I; i; C% ` v. O6 {& f( o
outbreak in 2002.Credit: Matthew Maran/NPL. i1 L4 m/ ^1 O, d( `
• Decline and extinction of populations ' F; r, T0 i0 v6 s# Z' h0 ~5 _" \( D7 f% B• Introduction of invasive species" z0 X( A' F) ]4 i
• Spread of new diseases to humans : h- [7 q6 o9 o5 X7 m: z* E+ q/ ~We use the CITES trade database as source for my data. This database / G2 M. `. k2 I: dcontains more than 20 million records of trade and is openly accessible. The ! Q4 A6 L& y g) _appendix is the data on mammal trade from 1990 to 2021, and the complete$ k# t& v( _# y4 Y
database can also be obtained through the following link:, w5 Z2 Y: |6 K0 W
https://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CKACoDDpEJ ! d! u+ p0 c5 V# U) c lRequirements Your team are asked to build reasonable mathematical mod 4 z# {: v, O, `# g5 h/ m' v+ a! qels, analyze the data, and solve the following problems:0 J; h4 R* t6 P! d. v6 g3 n$ c" I
1. Which wildlife groups and species are traded the most (in terms of live2 ~+ I$ Q7 i X6 B
animals taken from the wild)?+ U$ R+ p9 O! ]% r' g3 A( G5 Q8 h
2. What are the main purposes for trade of these animals? d$ K: z4 U) E- G- {3. How has the trade changed over the past two decades (2003-2022)?1 O4 Z( ?" e( i' v# s5 L' y6 K3 J
4. Whether the wildlife trade is related to the epidemic situation of major ' t2 X# F" j1 \; j4 E% u# einfectious diseases?: b- h. Y8 R1 S" ^ o
25. Do you agree with banning on wildlife trade for a long time? Whether it& S* m) C8 p' K9 J* E4 H% t
will have a great impact on the economy and society, and why?: x& k; J6 I8 R. J7 f( ]- O
6. Write a letter to the relevant departments of the US government to explain : Q" |3 T! F) M; @( k/ k6 _2 D% n& nyour views and policy suggestions.5 k' F$ e* |8 t5 Q) E' i6 }
Q% c2 f2 D% o. E# i) N
/ M) d) R9 s. x" T
/ W6 q0 E& Z2 N, F J0 E- X, J& [ . z, }+ |: b$ { ; L5 v# v M/ u$ W$ K. g3 e @; T 8 V# x) K0 A5 E/ f; F/ Q: {" D% K 9 z, z" o o$ a