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升级   47.37% TA的每日心情 | 衰 2013-1-10 15:50 |
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签到天数: 3 天 [LV.2]偶尔看看I
- 自我介绍
- 200 字节以内
不支持自定义 Discuz! 代码
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3#
发表于 2012-5-16 09:49
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luoshichao123 发表于 2012-5-16 07:32 ![]()
5 f5 m$ s. z0 N5 Y9 V0 ~这个程序自己编啊,原理很简单的 7 b4 I# k* C( _: X
网上下了个,总出错。- function GM1=fungry1(x0) %输入原始数据x0: \% o) L8 G: q: g6 J
- T=input('T=');%从键盘输入从最后一个历史数据算起的第T时点, A2 a) o' |9 B! k# q1 Y
- x1=zeros(1,length(x0));B=zeros(length(x0)-1,2);
5 b6 W& ?$ j2 {, t* ~ - yn=zeros(length(x0)-1,1);Hatx0=zeros(1,length(x0)+T);
( A\" w% m* J\" M# M0 u# A - Hatx00=zeros(1,length(x0));Hatx1=zeros(1,length(x0)+T);$ ~* V, d' a0 h
- epsilon=zeros(length(x0),1);omega=zeros(length(x0),1);
$ Y2 e+ @: D8 ]2 C( t/ K - for i=1:length(x0)
3 K$ v8 }# i, d# M% Z - for j=1:i$ ?5 j- E- G9 j\" G% l( H% G% J
- x1(i)=x1(i)+x0(j);( x- e- h, W) f$ t; U+ [# `
- end
\" W$ A2 z2 B4 H+ k) g - end
- d8 p$ i2 w: m( R! y; ~7 X - for i=1:length(x0)-15 y3 W$ F9 b/ C8 z
- B(i,1)=(-1/2)*(x1(i)+x1(i+1));
, W2 _8 c# u6 e1 p - B(i,2)=1;
, g& p; ~( Z! S, ~ - yn(i)=x0(i+1);& K. ?- ~) j {2 Y! J0 Y& ^
- end6 Q4 \; }7 A$ g( H( c* U0 A
- HatA=(inv(B'*B))*B'*yn % GM(1,1)模型参数估计
. k4 g\" |* j% t, `2 z \, \+ S0 j - for k=1:length(x0)+T1 P7 n2 ]# L- ~) ?6 G$ o. L
- Hatx1(k)=(x0(1)-HatA(2)/HatA(1))*exp(-HatA(1)*(k-1))+HatA(2)/HatA(1);2 n# r* y/ r. d0 q
- end
3 R$ ?+ |, w- o4 m% V - Hatx0(1)=Hatx1(1);% ~- S\" o2 p/ L+ D; n7 N9 r9 h3 T
- for k=2:length(x0)+T
- l8 c I* O\" w: w* `% f; c$ c. Q - Hatx0(k)=Hatx1(k)-Hatx1(k-1);%累计还原得到历史数据的模拟值: |0 O; i2 g1 P7 y+ a- }
- end
8 ^ ]! O+ u0 I - for i=1:length(x0) %开始模型检验
' z; o# p- J1 N2 v- c) f2 u - epsilon(i)=x0(i)-Hatx0(i);
& T, e( r, g, m% b& ?4 u - omega(i)=(epsilon(i)/x0(i))*100;7 m: ]' S8 w R9 K5 b! D
- end6 M: _5 {7 p2 A8 ~! v4 m1 q
- % x0;Hatx0;epsilon;omega; %必要时去掉%得到各种数据
- G\" Z5 q4 f, W3 Y* | - c=std(epsilon)/std(x0);p=0;
- b0 J5 @+ ^' W6 `2 s - for i=1:length(x0)
( b& K: \' X: n6 c7 C8 C) X/ ~ - if abs(epsilon(i)-mean(epsilon))<0.6745*std(x0)% c' Q+ m9 ^5 L. J6 T3 M
- p=p+1;
* M7 _7 x1 z+ O# E! e - end6 r: N. r1 G7 y& x
- end. |/ v, y) A7 F
- p=p/length(x0)/ V+ o/ c' j) G
- if p>0.95 & c<0.35
x% e5 K6 B: J& i; ~$ X( k/ b - disp('The model is good,and the forecast is:'),
, r! P; R: `$ b6 ~3 x' } - disp(Hatx0(length(x0)+T))\" c8 a- J/ C, y9 M3 u w% H
- elseif p>0.85 & c<0.5
4 H A9 d, O. R* H q - disp('The model is eligibility,and the forecast is:'),. x4 z: [% p0 q. @
- disp(Hatx0(length(x0)+T))\" a) D6 c( X0 r P, M
- elseif p>0.7 & c>0.659 S- C1 ]: H' E% e; f
- disp('The model is not good,and the forecast is:'),# a: }5 I- e S+ k) G
- disp(Hatx0(length(x0)+T))7 j\" c8 v. ^* p# `0 C$ o
- else p<=0.7 & c>0.65
3 `! s' X4 P$ x7 H+ J0 P\" m - disp('The model is bad and try again')
: p5 M( g4 m. Y5 }$ ]9 j - end. s8 @5 L, `: q# W s9 b
- for i=1:length(x0)% r, ~( K% ?& u! T& a# e
- Hatx00(i)=Hatx0(i);8 J% O3 a( K; v* A7 A* @
- end
. }$ C: j- R& B( K& z! V* f1 } - z=1:length(x0);
+ }) [2 u; @2 B9 G- Z' g9 v7 H - plot(z,x0,'-',z,Hatx00,':') %将原始数据和模拟值画在一个图上帮助观察5 [# c& H- O! g# u ?+ _% m+ J, y
- text(2,x0(2),'History data: real line')
+ K- x7 m# Z- w! J( Z9 u/ y - text(length(x0)/2,Hatx00(length(x0))/2,'Simulation data:broken line')
6 c3 A* i4 _. D5 H - end
复制代码 试着输入fungry1(6)出现- T=[2 3 4 5 3 2]2 N9 Y: I! f: h+ M2 L
- Warning: Input arguments must be scalar.0 t5 M( J8 |' @6 ]& k& C- R
- > In fungry1 at 4
# N1 i$ f& X\" K9 t9 q - Warning: Input arguments must be scalar.
0 `\" D q n% l2 [- W& d - > In fungry1 at 5
9 i/ T) j, V$ {7 P0 o' g9 w - Warning: Matrix is singular to working precision.
8 j1 c/ D9 Q, o) W! K u) B - > In fungry1 at 171 ^* k. C2 J. H O
- ) x0 t- b9 I' \0 J) J
- HatA =
) l4 v2 X) [3 \9 e& h2 N - 5 \( j) L) W1 r\" O. t
- 0) S6 m, P0 z5 ^ R) Z
- 0
& i' R U1 \- P/ ?, A7 |8 \
! w\" b8 Z; s( [- B/ x1 c3 j( c4 Q5 `* Y
# p u$ Q, i! ]! v\" ~: H3 V- p =! {- Z8 |2 [( y$ N* ^! ?, ?& V
\" B! _; R\" t3 C- F8 T- 0: T3 V* r c7 g\" R2 P# @+ z
2 q) L4 P- Y/ Q( M' H) @
8 B8 z7 ?! z E, @- ans =
; i2 B4 b! ~; |4 G0 I( { - 9 ^9 b. r+ J\" B( \5 _; t
- 0
9 h/ G9 X0 s& m4 m
, R, }; h' k& c; `- _8 O- The model is bad and try again$ S; g/ u% ~ t# V. y
- ??? Index exceeds matrix dimensions.
5 h v; S5 h. c5 V - 8 {# E$ g( Z0 g\" T% w% G( P
- Error in ==> fungry1 at 548 k/ m# J\" U& _/ Y! C5 x
- text(2,x0(2),'History data: real line')& e) ^3 D, I7 ?9 f4 F% S/ C2 w
* a9 F4 U' B$ D% N- >>
复制代码 是怎么回事。 |
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