查看: 2768|回复: 7

转篇我们队长大人的总结

字体大小: 正常放大

2 主题	2 听众	41 积分

升级 37.89%

TA的每日心情

	无聊 2011-12-14 18:15

签到天数: 1 天

[LV.1]初来乍到

自我介绍: 200 字节以内

不支持自定义 Discuz! 代码

电梯直达

1^#

发表于 2009-4-4 22:20 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

|招呼Ta 关注Ta

本帖最后由 alic9363325 于 2009-4-4 22:22 编辑

先晒成绩
上外附中 5523 Shanghai Shanghai China JIA WANG B Meritorious

声明

我们将会把全篇Paper交给老师校际公开。因为是原稿，一些NC的语法错误请大家谅解，也可以成为SAT改错练习材料，哈哈。

总结陈辞

王MM还拒绝我叫她魔头，其实科学严密性要求可怕得很。 去 年为一等奖争光的AHP、模糊定量、或者估计数据的方法被她在第 一天就封杀。 其实这些方法有一定的合理性，她在开题当天下午就用AHP法完成了第二个模型（效率也很可怕），至今公共邮箱里还有残余。随即，吃了一顿饭，突然和组内达成共识，通篇论文即使不能取胜，也要有极强的逻辑严密性，保证每一个数据的真实。唉，这位“科学偏执狂”。 （褒义词，王你不要再跳起来了！）
另外，大家不难看到，4个模型是全然不同的4种风格和思路。这就要感谢全组各位同学亲密无间的合作。 交叉学科，动静结合和改良的Logistic 模型 ，可以说每一种都是亮点。
但是，显然以我们目前的实力——中学生的实力，和最理想化的团队合作，都是不够的，不足以拿到Outstanding。虽然组员兴致勃勃地说“没有什么不可能，我们还有明年”，诚然我很欣慰这次附中出的是极有潜力和年轻资本的MCM团队，但是，大约所有参加过MCM的同学都会了解，中国，尤其是中国中学生，在MCM里得Outstanding有多大可能性啊？！
这是已经超越了实力问题范畴，上升到思维差异性层面了。
我们这以初三和高一为主力的团队竟然取得了目前的佳绩可以算是奇迹了吧！如果要奇迹重现，明年争取Outstanding的话，那要在思维上下功夫了。（其他Suggestion请高人不吝指教额。）
另外，据我调查，MCM在今后发展（比如申请深造等）方面的作用不过如此而已吧。Meritorious应该已经足够了。我的组员们，真的需要那么努力争取Outstanding么？还不如多多争取其他的Exchange或者Summer Program吧！校友们对这个应该都比较了解。。。

That's the END of 2009 MCM. 我们可爱又善良的组员们，不约而同地在心里出现了一个念头：谢谢昨天的奇迹，脚踏实地地做好今天的事，眺望着明天的灿烂日光。所以，请大家原谅我们用超过常人3倍的努力换来一个奇迹，也祝福我们心里的愿望。谢谢。
Summary

The ultimate goal of our whole modeling is to optimize the number of cell phone and landline telephone users mainly concerned with saving energy. Also, we predict the trend of its development in the future. Thus we build four models totally.

The first model predicts the effect on energy consumption through current transformation from landline phones to cell phones during either transition or the steady state . We basically calculate the gap
between the energy consumed by the two devices, taking population change into consideration. Generally, we base our modeling on exact data , circumventing random simulation. As for the variable required estimation, we draw an analogy
with the model of crystal lattice in chemistry. Even though deviation inevitably exists with the passage of time, our model boasts high emulation, minimizing possible deviations, which enjoys unparalleled advantages in short-term prediction.

The second model is generally committed to the consequences resulted from the condition of having only landlines, only cell phones, or a mixture of the two, analyzing both staticly and dynamically . Also, we have researched the mutual impact between sorts of people’s demand, technology development ,and energy consumption.

The third model estimates the electricity wasted by over charging, standby and idle time energy consumption. Depending on the similar properties of appliances, the model can be applied to energy consumption of all other electrical appliances with quatification of user’s subjective habits. It also includes a model of necessary charging time , which random data can fit. Our final arrangement is 30.26% better than random ones.

The fourth model simulated the increase in the number of cell phones and energy consumption on condition of changing demand by improved Logistic model . It can anticipate in either the short or the long run. It does have the potential of being applied to other fields and conditions with analysis of sensitivity.

We adopt four models in distinctive thoughts, covering predictions of all times, to the ideal simulations and predictions.