【转】飓风防备Hurricane preparedness

我要吃章鱼丸子

eastern coastal areas of the
USA. Sandy and Irene (which occurred a year earlier) were both “100-year storms” (i.e., based on
historical data, a storm of that strength has less than 1% probability of occurring on a given year). Both
resulted in “100-year-floods” in New York City. Both have caused numerous casualties and damage in
the billions of dollars.
To protect the city of New York from floods, a group of scientists and engineers has recommended
erecting several gigantic “sea gates” -- movable barriers that would be closed during hurricanes,
preventing the storm surges from entering Hudson and East rivers. Such measures are quite expensive
– the current rough estimates put construction costs at 10 billion dollars.
To be realistic/conservative, you will assume a 20 billion construction cost + 500 million per year in
additional costs (e.g., maintenance, security, impact on industry/trade/ecology) once they are built.
a) Suppose Sandy never happened and that storms like Irene occur with probability P1=0.01 per
year. Are the barriers economically justifiable?
b) Many researchers have found that climate change and rising sea levels will dramatically increase
the probability of such events in the future, making such costly flood-prevention measures more
attractive. Find the lowest value of P1 that would justify erecting the sea gates to protect NYC.
c) Suppose that Irene-strength storms happen with the annual probability of P1 while the
corresponding annual probability of Sandy-strength storms is P2.
Find all “lowest” (P1,P2) pairs that justify the sea gates.
d) The high cost is not the only disadvantage of the sea gates. While protecting Manhattan and
parts of other boroughs , they will likely also increase the flooding in several unprotected areas
of Brooklyn, Queens and New Jersey. Develop a model for the future changes in real estate
prices and/or population density in Breezy Point (Queens) and Manhattan Beach (Brooklyn) in
the next 50/100 years. Your model should make predictions for two different scenarios (i.e.,
with and without sea gates).
e) A preliminary version of your report somehow found its way to a journalist, who rushed to
publicize the simulation results, alarming the general population & frustrating the
engineers/scientists/authorities. Write a non-technical, half-page-long open “Letter to the
Editor” to explain the limitations of your model’s applicability.
© Alexander Vladimirsky
A few words of advice from the contest organizers:
 Always start with simpler models and then include additional features (and/or more realistic
data) later – only if you have enough time.
 Much of the data you might need for your model can be easily found on the web.
 If the full problem is too long for your team, you can choose between solving subproblems (c)
and (d).

翻译

飓风防备
最近的超级风暴桑迪对东北沿海地区前所未有的悲剧
美国桑迪和艾琳（这是一年前发生）都是“100年风暴”（即，基于
历史数据，一场风暴的力量在一个给定的一年内发生的几率不到1%。两
导致纽约市“100年洪水”。两者都造成了大量的人员伤亡和伤害
数十亿美元。
为了保护纽约的城市免遭洪水，一组科学家和工程师建议
架设几个巨大的“门海”——可移动的障碍，将关闭在飓风，
防止风暴潮进入河和东的河流。这些措施是相当昂贵的
目前的粗略估计使建筑成本为100亿美元。
要现实的/保守的，你会承担一个200亿建筑成本每年5亿
一旦建立了额外的成本（例如，维护，安全，对工业/贸易/生态的影响）。
一）想桑迪从未发生，风暴艾琳发生概率P1 = 0.01元
年。经济上的障碍是合理的吗？
许多研究人员已经发现，气候变化和海平面上升将大幅增加
这样的事件在未来的概率，使这些昂贵的防洪措施
吸引人。找到最低值P1就证明安装门海保护纽约。
c）假设艾琳强度风暴发生在P1年度概率而
砂强度的风暴每年相应概率P2。
找到所有的“最低”（P1，P2）对证明门海。
d）高成本不是海门唯一的缺点。同时保护曼哈顿
其他地区的部分，他们还可能将增加几个保护区洪水
布鲁克林，皇后区和新泽西。发展房地产未来变化模式
在轻松点的价格和/或人口密度（皇后）和曼哈顿海滩（布鲁克林）在
未来50 / 100年。你的模型应该对2个不同的方案进行预测（即，
与无门海）。
）一个你的报告的初步版本不知何故找到了一个记者的方式，谁送往
宣传模拟结果，令人震惊的一般人口和令人沮丧的
工程师/科学家/权威机构。写一个非技术性的，半页的长信给打开”
编辑“解释模型适用性的局限性。
©亚力山大弗拉基米尔
竞赛组织者建议的几句话：

• 总是先从简单的模型，包括额外的功能（和/或更现实
  

数据）：只有当你有足够的时间。

• 多你可能为你的模型需要的数据可以很容易地在网上找到的。
• 如果完整的问题是你的队伍太长，你可以解决的子问题之间选择（C）
  

和（d）。


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