2019 MCM
Problem A: Game of Ecology
In the fictional television series Game of Thrones, based on the series of epic fantasy novels A Song of Ice
and Fire[1]
, three dragons are raised by Daenerys Targaryen, the “Mother of Dragons.” When hatched, the
dragons are small, roughly 10 kg, and after a year grow to roughly 30-40 kg. They continue to grow
throughout their life depending on the conditions and amount of food available to them.
For the purposes of this problem, consider these three fictional dragons are living today. Assume that the
basic biology of dragons described above is accurate. You will need to make some additional assumptions
about dragons that might include, for example, that dragons are able to fly great distances, breath fire, and
resist tremendous trauma. As you address the problem requirements, it should be clear how your
assumptions are related to the physical constraints of the functions, size, diet, changes, or other
characteristics associated with the animals.
Your team is assigned to analyze dragon characteristics, behavior, habits, diet, and interaction with their
environment. To do so, you will have to consider many questions. At a minimum, address the following:
What is the ecological impact and requirements of the dragons? What are the energy expenditures of the
dragons, and what are their caloric intake requirements? How much area is required to support the three
dragons? How large a community is necessary to support a dragon for varying levels of assistance that can
be provided to the dragons? Be clear about what factors you are considering when addressing these
questions.
As with other animals that migrate, dragons might travel to different regions of the world with very different
climates. How important are the climate conditions to your analysis? For example, would moving a dragon
between an arid region, a warm temperate region, and an arctic region make a big difference in the resources
required to maintain and grow a dragon?
Once your dragon analysis is complete, draft a two-page letter to the author of A Song of Ice and Fire,
George R.R. Martin, to provide guidance about how to maintain the realistic ecological underpinning of the
story, especially with respect to the movement of dragons from arid regions to temperate regions and to
arctic regions.
While your dragon analysis does not directly apply to a real physical situation, the mathematical modeling
itself makes use of many realistic features used in modeling a situation. Aside from the modeling activities
themselves, describe and discuss a situation outside of the realm of fictional dragons that your modeling
efforts might help inform and provide insight?
Your submission should consist of:
? One-page Summary Sheet,
? Two-page letter,
? Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 23 pages with your summary and letter.
? Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 23-page limit and should appear
after your completed solution.
NOTE: You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright
laws. Please be careful in how you use and cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your
report.
Reference
1. Penguin Random House (2018). A Song of Ice and Fire Series. Retrieved from
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/series/SOO/a-song-of-ice-and-fire/.
2019 MCM
Problem B: Send in the Drones: Developing an Aerial Disaster Relief
Response System
Background: In 2017, the worst hurricane to ever hit the United States territory of Puerto Rico
(see Attachment 1) left the island with severe damage and caused over 2900 fatalities. The
combined destructive power of the hurricane’s storm surge and wave action produced extensive
damage to buildings, homes, and roads, particularly along the east and southeast coast of Puerto
Rico. The storm, with its fierce winds and heavy rain, knocked down 80 percent of Puerto Rico's
utility poles and all transmission lines, resulting in loss of power to essentially all of the island's
3.4 million residents. In addition, the storm damaged or destroyed the majority of the island’s
cellular communication networks. The electrical power and cell service outages lasted for
months across much of the island, and longer in some locations. Widespread flooding blocked
and damaged many highways and roads across the island, making it nearly impossible for
emergency services ground vehicles to plan and navigate their routes. The full extent of the
damage in Puerto Rico remained unclear for some time; dozens of areas were isolated and
without communication. Demands for medical supplies, lifesaving equipment, and treatment
strained health-care clinics, hospital emergency rooms, and non-governmental organizations’
(NGOs) relief operations. Demand for medical care continued to surge for some time as the
chronically ill turned to hospitals and temporary shelters for care.
Problem: Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are often challenged to provide adequate
and timely response during or after natural disasters, such as the hurricane that struck the United
States territory of Puerto Rico in 2017. One NGO in particular – HELP, Inc. - is attempting to
improve its response capabilities by designing a transportable disaster response system called
“DroneGo.” DroneGo will use rotor wing drones to deliver pre-packaged medical supplies and
provide high-resolution aerial video reconnaissance. Selected drones should be able to perform
these two missions – medical supply delivery and video reconnaissance – simultaneously or
separately, depending on relief conditions and scheduling. HELP, Inc. has identified various
candidate rotor wing drones that it would like your team to consider for possible use in designing
its DroneGo fleet (see Attachments 2, 3).
DroneGo’s pre-packaged medical supplies, called medical packages, are meant to augment, not
replace, the supplies provided by local medical assistance organizations on-site within the
country affected by the disaster. HELP, Inc. is planning on three different medical packages
referred to as MED1, MED2, and MED3. Drones will carry these medical packages within drone
cargo bays for delivery to selected locations (see Attachments 4, 5). Depending on the specific
drone being used to transport medical supplies, it may be possible that multiple medical
packages can be transported in a single drone cargo bay. Note that drones must land on the
ground to offload medical supplies from the drone cargo bays. The video capability of the drones
will provide high-resolution video of damaged and serviceable transportation road networks to
HELP, Inc.’s command and control center for ground-based route planning.
HELP, Inc. will use International Standards Organization (ISO) standard dry cargo containers to
quickly transport a complete DroneGo disaster response system to a particular disaster area. The
individual shipping containers for all drones in the DroneGo fleet, along with all required
2019 MCM
Problem C: The Opioid Crisis
Background: The United States is experiencing a national crisis regarding the use of synthetic and non?synthetic opioids, either for the treatment and management of pain (legal, prescription use) or for
recreational purposes (illegal, non-prescription use). Federal organizations such as the Centers for Disease
Control (CDC) are struggling to “save lives and prevent negative health effects of this epidemic, such as
opioid use disorder, hepatitis, and HIV infections, and neonatal abstinence syndrome.”1 Simply enforcing
existing laws is a complex challenge for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the U.S. Drug
Enforcement Administration (DEA), among others.
There are implications for important sectors of the U.S. economy as well. For example, if the opioid crisis
spreads to all cross-sections of the U.S. population (including the college-educated and those with
advanced degrees), businesses requiring precision labor skills, high technology component assembly, and
sensitive trust or security relationships with clients and customers might have difficulty filling these
positions. Further, if the percentage of people with opioid addiction increases within the elderly, health
care costs and assisted living facility staffing will also be affected.
The DEA/National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS), as part of the Drug Enforcement
Administration's (DEA) Office of Diversion Control, publishes a data-heavy annual report addressing
"drug identification results and associated information from drug cases analyzed by federal, state, and
local forensic laboratories." The database within NFLIS includes data from crime laboratories that handle
over 88% of the nation's estimated 1.2 million annual state and local drug cases. For this problem, we
focus on the individual counties located in five (5) U.S. states: Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia,
and Tennessee. In the U.S., a county is the next lower level of government below each state that has
taxation authority.
Supplied with this problem description are several data sets for your use. The first file
(MCM_NFLIS_Data.xlsx) contains drug identification counts in years 2010-2017 for narcotic analgesics
(synthetic opioids) and heroin in each of the counties from these five states as reported to the DEA by
crime laboratories throughout each state. A drug identification occurs when evidence is submitted to
crime laboratories by law enforcement agencies as part of a criminal investigation and the laboratory’s
forensic scientists test the evidence. Typically, when law enforcement organizations submit these
samples, they provide location data (county) with their incident reports. When evidence is submitted to a
crime laboratory and this location data is not provided, the crime laboratory uses the location of the
city/county/state investigating law enforcement organization that submitted the case. For the purposes of
this problem, you may assume that the county location data are correct as provided.
The additional seven (7) files are zipped folders containing extracts from the U.S. Census Bureau that
represent a common set of socio-economic factors collected for the counties of these five states during
each of the years 2010-2016 (ACS_xx_5YR_DP02.zip). (Note: The same data were not available for
2017.)
A code sheet is present with each data set that defines each of the variables noted. While you may use
other resources for research and background information, THE DATA SETS PROVIDED CONTAIN
THE ONLY DATA YOU SHOULD USE FOR THIS PROBLEM.
1 Centers for Disease Control website, (https://www.cdc.gov/features/confronting-opioids/index.html ), accessed 4
September 2018.
2019 ICM
Problem D: Time to leave the Louvre
The increasing number of terror attacks in France[1]
requires a review of the emergency
evacuation plans at many popular destinations. Your ICM team is helping to design evacuation
plans at the Louvre in Paris, France. In general, the goal of evacuation is to have all occupants
leave the building as quickly and safely as possible. Upon notification of a required evacuation,
individuals egress to and through an optimal exit in order to empty the building as quickly as
possible.
The Louvre is one of the world’s largest and most visited art museum, receiving more than 8.1
million visitors in 2017[2]
. The number of guests in the museum varies throughout the day and
year, which provides challenges in planning for regular movement within the museum. The
diversity of visitors -- speaking a variety of languages, groups traveling together, and disabled
visitors -- makes evacuation in an emergency even more challenging.
The Louvre has five floors, two of which are underground.
Figure 1: Floor plan of Louvre[3]
The 380,000 exhibits located on these five floors cover approximately 72,735 square meters,
with building wings as long as 480 meters or 5 city blocks[3]
. The pyramid entrance is the main
and most used public entrance to the museum. However, there are also three other entrances
usually reserved for groups and individuals with museum memberships: the Passage Richelieu
entrance, the Carrousel du Louvre entrance, and the Portes Des Lions entrance. The Louvre has
an online application, “Affluences” (https://www.affluences.com/louvre.php), that provides real?time updates on the estimated waiting time at each of these entrances to help facilitate entry to
the museum. Your team might consider how technology, to include apps such as Affluences, or
others could be used to facilitate your evacuation plan.
2019 ICM
Problem E: What is the Cost of Environmental Degradation?
Economic theory often disregards the impact of its decisions on the biosphere or assumes
unlimited resources or capacity for its needs. There is a flaw in this viewpoint, and the
environment is now facing the consequences. The biosphere provides many natural processes to
maintain a healthy and sustainable environment for human life, which are known as ecosystem
services. Examples include turning waste into food, water filtration, growing food, pollinating
plants, and converting carbon dioxide into oxygen. However, whenever humans alter the
ecosystem, we potentially limit or remove ecosystem services. The impact of local small-scale
changes in land use, such as building a few roads, sewers, bridges, houses, or factories may seem
negligible. Add to these small projects, large-scale projects such as building or relocating a large
corporate headquarters, building a pipeline across the country, or expanding or altering
waterways for extended commercial use. Now think about the impact of many of these projects
across a region, country, and the world. While individually these activities may seem
inconsequential to the total ability of the biosphere’s functioning potential, cumulatively they are
directly impacting the biodiversity and causing environmental degradation.
Traditionally, most land use projects do not consider the impact of, or account for changes to,
ecosystem services. The economic costs to mitigate negative results of land use changes:
polluted rivers, poor air quality, hazardous waste sites, poorly treated waste water, climate
changes, etc., are often not included in the plan. Is it possible to put a value on the environmental
cost of land use development projects? How would environmental degradation be accounted for
in these project costs? Once ecosystem services are accounted for in the cost-benefit ratio of a
project, then the true and comprehensive valuation of the project can be determined and
assessed.
Your ICM team has been hired to create an ecological services valuation model to understand the
true economic costs of land use projects when ecosystem services are considered. Use your
model to perform a cost benefit analysis of land use development projects of varying sizes, from
small community-based projects to large national projects. Evaluate the effectiveness of your
model based on your analyses and model design. What are the implications of your modeling on
land use project planners and managers? How might your model need to change over time?
Your submission should consist of:
? One-page Summary Sheet,
? Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 21 pages with your summary.
? Judges expect a complete list of references with in-text citations, but may not consider
appendices in the judging process.
? Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 21-page limit and
should appear after your completed solution.
2019 ICM
Problem F: Universal, Decentralized, Digital Currency: Is it possible?
Digital currency can be used like traditional currencies to buy and sell goods, except that it is
digital and has no physical representation. Digital currency enables its users to make transactions
instantaneously and without any concern for national borders. Cryptocurrency is a subset of
digital currency with unique features of privacy, decentralization, security and encryption.
Cryptocurrencies have exploded in popularity in various parts of the world; moving from an
underground cult interest to a globally accepted phenomenon. Bitcoin and Ethereum, both
cryptocurrencies, have grown in value, while investors are projecting rapid growth for other
cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin or Ripple. In addition to digital and cryptocurrencies, there
are also new digital methods for financial transactions that enable users to instantaneously
exchange money with nothing more than an email address or a thumbprint. Peer-to-peer payment
systems offered by companies like PayPal, Stripe, Venmo, Zelle, Apple Pay, Square Cash, and
Google Pay offer virtual movement of money across the globe in seconds without ever having to
verify the transaction through a bank or currency exchange. Digital transactions outpace cash and
check transactions because they are not delayed by banking policies, national borders,
citizenship, debts, or other social-economic factors. These new currency systems decentralize
financial transactions, leaving many to consider a world where traditional banking may become
obsolete.
Concerns about security of cryptocurrencies worry both citizens and economic analysts. These
concerns have constrained its growth in some communities. On the other hand, much of the
popularity of cryptocurrency is due to its departure from traditional overly-restrictive security
and debt measures that rely on oversight by large banks and governments. These oversight
institutions are often expensive, deeply bureaucratic, and sometimes corrupt. Some experts
believe that a universal, decentralized, digital currency with internal security like blockchain can
make markets more efficient by eliminating barriers to the flow of money. This is particularly
important in countries where the majority of citizens do not have bank accounts and are unable to
invest in regional or global financial markets. Some governments, however, view the lack of
regulation around these currencies and their anonymity as too risky because of how easily they
can be used in illicit transactions, such as tax sheltering or purchasing illegal merchandise.
Others feel that a secure digital currency offers a more convenient and safer form of financial
exchange. For instance, a universally accepted currency would enable truly global financial
markets and would protect individual assets against regional inflation fluctuations and artificial
manipulation of currency by regional governments. If alternative digital systems become more
established, there will be many questions about how digital currency will affect current banking
systems and nation-based currencies.
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